MSCI Threatens to Boot Strategy and 38 Crypto Companies From Major Indices

TLDR

• MSCI is consulting on excluding companies with crypto holdings over 50% of total assets from its indices, with a decision due January 15, 2026
• JPMorgan analysts estimate Strategy could face $2.8 billion in outflows if removed from MSCI indices, and $8.8 billion total if other index providers follow
• About $9 billion of Strategy’s $50 billion market value currently sits in passive index-tracking funds
• At least 38 crypto companies are on MSCI’s preliminary list, including Strategy, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital Holdings
• Any changes would take effect during the February 2026 index review

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Meta Description: MSCI considers excluding Strategy and other crypto treasury companies from indices. JPMorgan warns of $11.6B in potential outflows. Decision due Jan 15.

MSCI announced in October it is consulting with the investment community about excluding Bitcoin and digital asset treasury companies from its indices. The consultation targets companies with balance sheets containing more than 50% crypto assets.

The index provider stated that some feedback indicates these companies exhibit characteristics similar to investment funds. Investment funds are currently not eligible for index inclusion under MSCI rules.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou released a report warning of the potential impact on Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy. The analysts estimate approximately $9 billion of Strategy’s $50 billion market value sits in passive funds tracking MSCI indices.

If MSCI removes Strategy from its indices, passive index-tracking funds would be required to sell their holdings. The analysts calculate this could result in $2.8 billion in outflows from MSCI-tracked funds alone.

The impact could extend further if other index providers follow MSCI’s lead. JPMorgan estimates total outflows could reach $11.6 billion if all index providers adopt similar exclusion criteria.

Strategy currently appears in major indices including the Nasdaq-100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World. This inclusion has allowed bitcoin exposure to enter retail and institutional portfolios through passive investment vehicles.

Charlie Sherry, Head of Finance at Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, told Cointelegraph the odds favor MSCI excluding these companies. He noted MSCI typically only consults on changes when already leaning toward implementation.

Impact on Company Valuation

The JPMorgan analysts noted Strategy’s share price has fallen more than bitcoin in recent months. The company’s valuation premium has compressed as investors question its sustainability.

The analysts stated that Strategy’s ratio of total market value to its bitcoin holdings has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic. An MSCI exclusion would push this ratio closer to 1, effectively valuing the company primarily as a bitcoin holding vehicle.

Active fund managers are not required to mirror index changes. However, the analysts said removal would signal concerns about Strategy’s ability to raise capital in the future.

Timeline and Scope

The consultation period runs through December 31, 2025. MSCI will announce its decision on January 15, 2026.

If MSCI proceeds with the exclusion, changes would take effect during the February 2026 index review. Index-tracking funds would need to adjust their holdings accordingly.

MSCI’s preliminary list identifies 38 crypto companies that could be affected. The list includes Strategy, Sharplink Gaming, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital Holdings.

The index provider is also seeking input on additional parameters. These include whether a company defines itself as a digital asset treasury or has raised capital primarily to accumulate crypto.

Sherry said the decision reflects a shift in how the market views crypto-heavy corporate strategies. When most company value comes from balance sheet assets rather than business operations, MSCI views this as outside traditional equity benchmarks.

The consultation asks whether companies holding crypto assets primarily on their balance sheets should remain in equity indices. MSCI designed this as a risk-management decision to keep indexes aligned with business fundamentals.

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