3 Reasons Why Bitcoin (BTC) Could Rally to $116K Soon

Bitcoin’s price has seen better days as it failed at reconquering the $90,000 level despite a price surge to $92,000 earlier today and now sits below it for the third time this week.

Some technical signals now suggest that a reversal could be forming following the massive crash from the past few weeks. Analysts are watching for key confirmation signals, with recovery targets as high as $116,000.

Momentum Divergence Appears on 4-Hour Chart

Javon Marks, a market analyst, shared a chart showing a regular bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s 4-hour timeframe. The asset continues to print lower lows, but the momentum oscillator is doing the opposite—forming higher lows. This pattern often signals a shift in pressure from sellers to buyers.

Bitcoin is hovering around $89,000 at press time, down 1% on the day. Over the past seven days, the asset has dropped 13%. If momentum follows through, Marks says a rally could stretch beyond $116,000. The price would first need to break above key short-term resistance levels to validate the setup.

$93,100 Resistance Is a Key Test

Lennaert Snyder notes that Bitcoin found support at $88,900 and has since rebounded toward $93,100, where it is now testing that level. So far, the move has been met with selling. Snyder says he remains short-biased unless the price can close above $93,100. If that happens, he sees room for a push toward $95,600.

He also outlined a second possible path. If Bitcoin returns to sweep the $88,900 lows and shows a strong rebound wick, that could be the sign of a bottom.

With the US NFP data expected, market volatility may rise. Additionally, Titan of Crypto pointed to a recurring setup that looks similar to the 2021–2022 cycle. In both cases, a bearish divergence marked a local top, followed by a hidden bullish divergence. This is now developing again, while the price trades inside a fair value gap and above rising trend support.

Another analyst, EGRAG Crypto, added that Bitcoin is currently testing the 21-month EMA. He said BTC has never entered a bear market without closing a full monthly candle below this line.

Past cycles have used this level as a springboard for upside.

On-Chain Loss Data Repeats Past Patterns

Bitcoin’s realized loss margin has fallen to -16%, as CryptoPotato reported. That number tracks the average losses realized by sellers. During past cycles, similar drops below -12% often appeared near market lows. The current reading suggests that many traders are exiting positions deep in the red.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s realized price sits near $114,000. This gap shows the extent of unrealized losses. If historical patterns repeat, it may support a recovery in the weeks ahead. Broader macro trends, including rising yields in Japan and stress in US banks, are also adding to the current market caution.

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