MicroStrategy and Harvard University, two major institutions, increased their holdings against the trend. Is this bottom accumulation or a trap of chasing highs?

MicroStrategy and Harvard University, two major institutions, increased their holdings against the trend. Is this bottom accumulation or a trap of chasing highs?

MicroStrategy bought 8,178 Bitcoins for $835.6 million, locking in an average price of $102,171. Although the current drop below $90,000 has resulted in a floating loss for this batch of holdings, the company's overall average cost is about $74,433, which is still profitable. It is estimated that 40% of its holdings are trading below cost.

Harvard Management disclosed in its 13F filing on September 30 that it holds 6.8 million shares of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), worth $442.9 million, a 200% increase from the previous quarter, making it its most valuable holding among its U.S.-listed stocks. This institution, which manages $50 billion in assets, increased its holdings during the market downturn, highlighting its long-term bullish outlook on digital assets.

The two major institutions increased their positions just as the market was undergoing a deep correction: financing rates fell into negative territory, open interest declined, short-term holders (wallets that received coins within 155 days) faced "on-chain surrender," and retail investors sold off their positions due to leveraged liquidation and realized losses.

The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw its monthly market capitalization shrink by $2.57 billion, marking its largest drop since its inception. The outflow of funds was concentrated during the US trading session, further pressuring prices. This pattern of retail selling and institutional buying represents a typical characteristic of funds shifting from weaker investors to stronger institutions.

On-chain data shows that whale wallets holding over 1,000 Bitcoins have been continuously increasing their holdings as smaller wallets exit, consistent with the early fund redistribution pattern in historical drawdowns.

However, it should be noted that wallet tagging relies on blockchain evidence and exchange labels, lacks KYC identity verification, and has certain limitations in holding data.

CryptoQuant data shows that the derivatives market is showing signs of deleveraging, with a decrease in open interest and a negative balance of money. This is more due to the liquidation of long-term positions than to whales actively withdrawing.

However, the increase in institutional holdings is insufficient to offset the pressure of ETF fund outflows. While the increases in holdings by MicroStrategy and Harvard are considerable, they cannot offset the $2.57 billion in ETF redemptions, and short-term accumulation is difficult to distinguish from a bull market trap in terms of chart pattern.

If ETF outflows continue until the end of the year, or if macroeconomic risks escalate, even if sovereign states, corporations, and other institutions increase their holdings, the liquidation price of Bitcoin may still fall further.

Micro-strategies can amortize costs over the long term thanks to their financing strategies. Harvard's investment cycle is as long as ten years, and quarterly drawdowns have a limited impact on it. However, retail investors and leveraged traders lack such a buffer.

The ultimate nature of this capital redistribution remains to be seen: if subsequent ETF outflows stabilize and institutional spot demand continues to follow, it may indicate that the bottom is near; if capital outflows and macroeconomic pressures intensify, the current increase in holdings may only be a short-term respite.

Bitcoin's drop below $90,000 has already filtered out long-term investors who can withstand volatility and speculators who are sensitive to short-term fluctuations, and the final answer will be revealed in the fund flows over the next month.