Federal Reserve Rate Cut Chances Fall to 33% With Delayed Jobs Data

TLDR

• The probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut has fallen to 33%, down from 67% at the start of November and nearly 100% three weeks ago
• Bitcoin dropped below $89,000 and has been trading under its 365-day moving average for six days, showing a “death cross” pattern
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the October employment report will be scrapped and November jobs data won’t be released until after the Fed’s December meeting
• Crypto investor sentiment hit “extreme fear” levels at 16 on the Fear & Greed Index, just one point above the yearly low
• Crypto-related stocks saw major losses, with Circle down 50% over the past month and Strategy down 40%

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The chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have dropped to 33% according to Chicago Mercantile Exchange data. This marks a sharp decline from 67% odds at the beginning of November and nearly 100% probability just three weeks ago.

Source: CME Group

The drop follows news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that October employment data will be scrapped due to the government shutdown. The November jobs report will not be released until after the Fed’s December meeting, leaving policymakers without key employment data for their decision.

Traders on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show slightly higher odds at 70% and 67% respectively. However, the general trend shows growing hesitation about rate cuts due to inflation concerns.

The Federal Reserve’s October meeting revealed deep divisions among central bank members about further monetary policy easing. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets during that meeting by expressing caution about additional rate cuts.

Bitcoin Price Drops Below Key Support Level

Bitcoin fell below $89,000 on Wednesday after failing to hold the $90,000 support level. The cryptocurrency has traded below its 365-day moving average for the past six days, a critical support indicator.

Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average crossed below the 200-day exponential moving average. This pattern, called a “death cross,” typically suggests further price declines ahead.

Market analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that Bitcoin needs to bounce within the next week if the current cycle is not over. Without a bounce, Cowen expects another drop before a larger rally back to the 200-day simple moving average.

Some analysts now predict Bitcoin could fall to $75,000 before recovering by the end of 2025. Others question whether the cycle top has already occurred.

Bitcoin stood at $110,000 just before Powell’s late October comments. The price has fallen about 19% since then to current levels around $89,000.

Crypto Market Sentiment Reaches Extreme Fear

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 16, indicating “extreme fear” among investors. This places market sentiment just one point above the yearly low.

Crypto-related stocks experienced severe losses during this downturn. Circle, a stablecoin issuer, dropped 10% on Wednesday and nearly 50% over the past month.

Strategy, a Bitcoin treasury company, fell 10% on Wednesday and approximately 40% over the past month. The losses in crypto stocks have been more severe than Bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw $1.1 billion in outflows during the recent market decline. The combination of falling prices and declining rate cut expectations has driven investors away from crypto assets.

President Donald Trump commented on the Federal Reserve situation this week at an investment forum. He said he would have fired Jerome Powell if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s advice to let Powell serve until his term ends in 2026.

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