Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be Repeating a Q1 2025 Cycle, And the Final Shakeout May Be Close

After a severe sell-off, Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized around $91,500. Pseudonymous crypto market analyst Axel Bitblaze has now found that the asset’s latest decline appears to be forming the pattern seen in the first quarter of 2025, when the asset topped in January and fell 17% while the S&P 500 continued to hit new highs.

At the time, he noted that many believed Bitcoin was simply cooling off. However, four weeks later, the S&P 500 also peaked, and both markets plunged in tandem, which ended up triggering a six-week stretch in which BTC dropped 25% and the index slid 21%.

One Last Bearish Trigger?

Bitblaze argued that current conditions look strikingly similar. Bitcoin peaked on October 6 and has already fallen about 18% in recent weeks, while the S&P 500 has only now begun to turn lower.

According to this breakdown, the sequence resembles the same cycle – Bitcoin begins to fall early without a clear bearish catalyst; equities continue to rise because they typically lag; investors eventually sense broader weakness and stocks break down; BTC’s sell-off briefly intensifies; Bitcoin regains strength sooner than equities; a final market spill follows; and then a reversal takes shape. Bitblaze said the market is likely in phase three or four of this pattern, with most of Bitcoin’s downside already realized.

The analyst added that if markets are waiting for one last bearish trigger, it may already be forming, while pointing to rising Japanese bond yields, liquidity pressures at smaller US banks, and market sensitivity to rumors involving high-profile political figures.

As such, the current downturn is mostly tied to the first two factors, which are potentially “slow burn” problems that often erupt without warning.

Bearish Forces Still Dominate

Despite a slight improvement in short-term signals, another analyst, Axel Adler Junior, believes the BTC market structure remains clearly bearish. The fast version of the Bull-Bear Structure Index has climbed from a critical reading of -41.89 on November 17 to -27.82, which indicates that bearish pressure has eased as prices stabilize near $91,000. However, he noted that the indicator is still well below the -25% threshold, and shows negative taker flow, derivatives pressure, and ETF outflows continue to dominate.

Meanwhile, the slow, smoothed version of the index has weakened further after falling from -14.04 to -21.90, which means that deeper structural bearish trends are still gaining strength.

Additionally, Coinbase Premium Gap has dropped to -$90, which happens to be one of its lowest levels this year. This signals weakened institutional participation. The premium typically rises when major players accumulate BTC, but the current negative reading shows retail-dominated trading on Binance is setting the tone. Analysts warn that this pattern can amplify volatility and selling pressure until institutional buyers return

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