Bear Grip: Why Bitcoin Collapsed Below $90,000 and What Experts Say

On the night of November 17-18, 2025, the digital asset market faced another massive drawdown. Bitcoin briefly fell under the $90,000 mark, Ethereum dipped below $3,000, and daily liquidations exceeded $1 billion.

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on the Binance exchange. TradingView.

Amid the collapse, the fear and greed index shifted to the “extreme fear” zone, and the fall itself affected most digital assets. All of this was part of a prolonged downtrend that saw the cryptocurrency industry lose hundreds of billions of dollars in capitalization.

The Incrypted team analyzed the situation and gathered expert opinions regarding the state of the market.

According to TradingView, bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark for the first time in seven months. A similar level was seen in April 2025, when the market experienced a significant correction under the influence of the new US tariff policy.
Analysts note that the decline coincided with the deterioration of the macroeconomic background. The probability of December policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) dropped to around 50%. This, in turn, has strengthened demand for government bonds and gold, reducing the inflow of capital into high-risk digital assets, according to Bloomberg experts.

The probability of a Fed rate cut at the December 10, 2025 meeting. Source: Polymarket.

Additional pressure was created by outflows from the bitcoin-ETF sector. For three weeks, net capital flows have been negative and the average cost of entry for investors was around $89,600, according to analysts.

Falling below that mark has left a significant portion of investors temporarily in the negative. At the same time, the majority of fund holders are long-term, and this reduces the likelihood of a quick exit from positions, according to Bloomberg.

According to CryptoQuant analysts, the breakdown of the $90,000 level was an important psychological signal, reflecting the fragility of the market in low liquidity conditions.

They warn that bitcoin risks facing a further correction all the way down to $87,500. A breakdown of this level could lead to an even greater decline and open the way to levels below $80,000.

In the case of Ethereum, the drawdown was also significant in percentage terms. On the weekly chart, it exceeded 14%, while on the monthly chart, the decline amounted to 21.2%, according to TradingView.

Hourly chart of ETH/USDT on the Binance exchange. TradingView.

The combined capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market has shrunk by more than a trillion dollars in forty days.

The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 11 points, indicating extremely weak demand from buyers and bearish sentiment. That said, despite short-term recoveries above key levels, the overall health of the industry remains strained.

Many analysts agree that the prolonged decline is not due to a deterioration in the fundamental properties of digital assets, but rather a combination of liquidity and market mechanics.

A review by the Kobeissi Letter team estimates that the market lost about $27 billion in market capitalization every day for 41 days. At the same time, there were no significant negative events that could explain such dynamics, analysts believe.

The authors believe that the market has entered a phase of structural decline. It is allegedly caused by a combination of institutional outflows and high leveraged positions among traders.

According to experts, the initial wave of decline was associated with the liquidation of positions for $19 billion, which caught up with the industry on October 10, 2025. At that time, the massive use of leverage led to the fact that even small price fluctuations caused cascades of liquidations, increasing volatility.

In recent weeks, several cases have been recorded when the daily volume of forced closings exceeded a billion dollars, experts pointed out. This was accompanied by sharp spikes in uncertainty and a drop in the fear and greed index.

Kobeissi analysts also note the divergence in the dynamics of gold and bitcoin after the October liquidations. The two assets have been highly correlated throughout the year, but after October 10, gold rose by more than 25 percentage points relative to the former cryptocurrency.

The researchers see this divergence as an additional sign of the mechanical nature of the current correction.

CryptoQuant CEO Kee Young Ju cites a similar analysis. According to him, the average order size in the futures markets has shrunk, indicating the departure of large players and the dominance of retail traders.

The expert noted that everything points to the end of the period when large participants used bitcoin as collateral for open long positions. At the same time, the leverage in the market remains high and the premium on large spot exchanges has reached its lowest level in nine months.

As Ju stated, “the P&L index switched to the sell side on Nov. 8.” He suggests that if the cyclical pattern continues, the bottom of the market may be around the $56,000 mark.

Some experts see the decline as a potentially profitable moment for long-term investors. In particular, Bitwise Investments CIO Matt Hougan said that the current situation represents a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” and a “gift for long-term investors.”

Fundstrat founder Tom Lee says he sees signs of “exhaustion” and admits a localized low will form in the coming days.

Against the background of a large-scale correction, experts and industry representatives give different assessments of what is happening. However, most agree that the decline is caused by a combination of market and external factors, and further dynamics will depend on liquidity and political decisions.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that the fall of bitcoin is due to the reduction of dollar liquidity. A weakening of capital flows from arbitrage transactions and related structured products has also played a role, he said.

He noted that the asset could short-term decline to the $80,000 to $85,000 range. According to Hayes, with liquidity restored and stock indexes correcting, bitcoin is capable of returning to the $200,000 to $250,000 level near the end of the year.

Binance CEO Richard Teng noted that “emotions are expensive in cryptocurrency markets.” According to the entrepreneur, volatility is a natural part of market development, and the best strategy in the face of uncertainty is to stick to the plan, be patient, and research information on your own.

Strategy co-founder and bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor also commented on what’s going on.

He supplemented this statement with the information that Strategy will continue regular bitcoin purchases. On Monday, November 17, Saylor reported that the company acquired 8,178 BTC worth $835.6 million.

Gemini exchange co-founder Cameron Winklevoss also expressed his stance on what is happening. He stated that this is “the last time you will be able to buy bitcoin below $90,000.”

His opinion reflects the view of a part of industry participants who see the current levels as an entry point before the next phase of the market.

Specially for Incrypted, the situation with the price movement of crypto-assets was commented on by Igor Stadnyk, the head of True Trading’s AI-direction. He noted that the correction was expected, as the market was in an overheated state.

According to him, the cumulative impact of factors — from liquidity reduction to changes in the global monetary policy — created conditions for the pullback. He emphasized that growth in recent months has been fueled by external capital inflows and the expansion of the open-ended market, where risk management mechanisms are often absent.

Additional pressure, according to Stadnyk, came from the US government shutdown and the Bank of Japan’s policy changes, which limited access to cheap liquidity.

As for the speculations about the alt season and the expectation by part of the community of possible growth of “junior assets” in the future, Stadnyk emphasized that the traditional understanding of this term has lost its relevance.

According to the head of True Trading’s AI-direction, a mass speculative alt-season in the previous form is hardly worth expecting. However, selective growth of high-quality assets is possible. It will occur not in a wave, but point by point, depending on external demand and the emergence of new product drivers, summarized Stadnyk.

Mark Letsyuk, co-founder of the official Solana Hub in Ukraine Kumeka Team, also shared his thoughts regarding the problems of the crypto market with Incrypted.

Speaking about the possible market bottom, he emphasized his dislike for “guessing.” However, Letsyuk admitted that in three or four weeks we will be “higher than we are now”. Whether the market is currently at the bottom or not, according to him, it is difficult to predict.

He paid special attention to the sustainability of Solana, touching on both the blockchain itself and the asset.

Thus, both valuations given for Incrypted converge on a few key points:

• the correction is perceived as natural for the current state of the market;
• the stability of the underlying assets depends on external factors and liquidity;
• the stance on “junior” altcoins is much more restrained than on bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.

As a result, we come to the fact that the drop in quotations, which covered the market of digital assets, was formed at the intersection of several factors at once.

Analysts point to the structural nature of the decline, which is reinforced by high volumes of liquidations, reduced institutional inflows and political instability. At the same time, despite the drawdown, a significant part of market participants consider what is happening as a clearing phase and a potential entry point for long-term investors.