CoreWeave (CRWV) Stock: AI Cloud Provider Faces Make-or-Break Earnings

TLDR

• CoreWeave reports third-quarter earnings Monday with expected revenue of $1.3 billion, more than double last year’s figure, but faces an anticipated loss of 36 cents per share.
• The stock dropped 22% last week as investors grew concerned about AI spending levels and the company’s capital expenditure growth outpacing revenue gains.
• Operating margin is projected at 14.3%, down from over 21% a year ago, as CoreWeave ramps up spending on data center infrastructure.
• Most of CoreWeave’s sales come from Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet, raising questions about customer concentration despite strong overall AI demand.
• Analysts expect recurring purchasing orders to double to $60 billion, though the company’s shares remain down 30% since its disappointing second-quarter report in August.

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CoreWeave reports third-quarter earnings Monday evening. The timing comes as investors question whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will pay off.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV

The cloud-computing company expects to post revenue of about $1.3 billion for the quarter. That represents more than double the revenue from a year ago.

However, the company anticipates an adjusted loss of 36 cents per share. That’s an improvement from the 53 cents loss in the second quarter but still reflects the costs of rapid expansion.

CoreWeave’s stock fell 22% last week. The decline came as the broader AI trade unwound, sending the S&P 500 to its first weekly loss in a month.

The company’s operating margin tells a challenging story. Analysts project margins around 14.3% for the quarter, down from more than 21% a year earlier.

Capital expenditures continue climbing faster than revenue growth. About $14 billion of CoreWeave’s yearly capex could hit in the fourth quarter alone, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anurag Rana.

Customer Concentration and Growth Questions

CoreWeave depends heavily on three major clients. Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet account for most of the company’s sales.

The company also faces scrutiny over circular deal structures. Many recent AI arrangements involve OpenAI at the center, raising questions about the sustainability of the business model.

Investors rejected CoreWeave’s takeover bid for Core Scientific on October 30. CEO Michael Intrator said the partnership between the two companies will continue despite the failed acquisition.

CoreWeave’s shares dropped 21% the day after second-quarter earnings in mid-August. The company posted a wider loss than expected and provided disappointing guidance.

The stock remains down 30% since that August report. However, shares are still up more than 160% since the company’s March IPO.

Revenue Backlog Provides Some Optimism

Wall Street analysts will watch for growth in CoreWeave’s backlog and recurring purchasing orders. Jefferies analysts led by Brent Thill expect deals from the quarter to double recurring purchasing orders to $60 billion.

The company needs to keep spending on infrastructure to meet customer demand. Supply continues falling short of what clients want to purchase.

CoreWeave’s top clients showed continued commitment to AI buildouts in their own earnings reports. That spending should flow through to CoreWeave’s revenue in coming quarters.

The company’s March IPO required support from Nvidia to complete. The challenging debut reflected investor uncertainty about the business model and debt levels.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about CoreWeave’s growth plans. The question is whether the company can scale profitably while managing its debt load.

CoreWeave expects roughly two-thirds of this year’s capex to land in the fourth quarter. That spending could lead to faster sales growth in 2026 as new capacity comes online.

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