BTC News: Bitcoin May Have Just 2 Years of Safety From Quantum Hacks Left

Here’s why Quantum experts are warning that Bitcoin’s encryption could be broken by 2028 as quantum computing accelerates.

The quantum threat to Bitcoin is no longer far into the future. Experts now believe the cryptocurrency’s safeguards could be broken in just over two years. 

According to the Quantum Doomsday Clock, quantum computers may gain the power to break Bitcoin’s cryptography by March 8, 2028.

Bitcoin’s Encryption May Fail Under Quantum Power

The Quantum Doomsday Clock models the growth of quantum computing power using real data from IBM, Google and academic studies. It now shows that once quantum machines reach around 1,673 logical qubits, they will be able to run algorithms capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption.

That number stands as the level of computing power required to crack elliptic curve cryptography. This is the same security layer that protects Bitcoin wallets and transactions.

The researchers behind the project, Dr. Richard Carback and Colton Dillion, argue that quantum processors are advancing very quickly. They base this forecast on growth from Google’s 53-qubit Sycamore processor in 2019 to projections of more than 6,000 qubits by late 2027.

If those estimates hold, a quantum computer could decrypt private keys and expose every Bitcoin wallet on the network. 

The consequences would be severe, as ownership records could be rewritten and the entire Bitcoin economy (worth over $2 trillion) could collapse overnight.

Inside the Quantum Doomsday Clock

The Quantum Doomsday Clock project, often referred to as Quantum Doom Clock, was developed to help visualize this risk. It tracks progress toward the level of computing needed to break key encryption systems.

According to its research, breaking RSA-2048 encryption requires about 2,314 logical qubits. RSA-4096 needs 3,971, and ECC-256 (used in Bitcoin) needs 1,673. The calculations also factor in error rates that determine how many physical qubits are needed to maintain each logical one.

Recent research has focused on improving error correction and is attempting to allow more stable quantum performance. The better error rates become, the fewer physical qubits are needed, and the sooner quantum computers can reach the required thresholds.

The project’s authors say that once the threshold is crossed, cryptographic attacks could take hours or days instead of centuries.

Developers Race to Build Quantum-Safe Bitcoin

Some companies are not waiting for the problem to arrive. BTQ Technologies has already shown a quantum-safe Bitcoin implementation. 

There are already quantum-safe solutions for Bitcoin | source: X

The project, called Bitcoin Quantum Core 0.2 replaces Bitcoin’s current ECDSA signature system with ML-DSA. This is a digital signature algorithm approved by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

This change aims to make Bitcoin resistant to quantum attacks by moving to a post-quantum encryption standard. While it is still experimental, the technology offers a possible path forward for developers who are worried about the deadline.

If adopted, systems like BTQ’s could help the Bitcoin network transition to safer cryptography before quantum computers gain the power to exploit it.

Analysts Call for Faster Migration to Quantum-Resistant Systems

Crypto analyst Charles Edwards believes that setting a timeline (even if it is a rough one) is important. He supports the idea behind the Quantum Doomsday Clock and says that it gives developers a target to work toward.

He warns that if the Bitcoin community fails to upgrade its cryptography before 2028, the network could face irreversible damage. As Edwards put it, once the quantum threshold is reached, “we’re going down that creek without a paddle.”

Analysts agree that Bitcoin’s pay-to-public-key-hash (P2PKH) wallets might be safe for a little longer because they only reveal public keys when used. But over time, every system still relying on current cryptographic methods will need to upgrade.

The trend toward post-quantum cryptography will require community coordination, software updates and possibly even a Bitcoin hard fork in the long run

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