Topline
Tuesday marks the first major electoral test of President Donald Trump’s second term and serves as a precursor to next year’s midterms—with key races in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City and redistricting on the ballot in California.
New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani speaks during an election rally at Forest Hills Stadium in New York, United States, on October 26, 2025. (Photo by Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images
Key Facts
Virginia: Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is running against former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
Since Virginia has been considered a battleground state in the past—though it’s voted for Democrats in all previous presidential elections since 2008—the state is considered a bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections and 2028 presidential election.
Spanberger—widely seen as a moderate Democrat—leads Earle-Sears in most polls, with a recent Roanoke College survey released Thursday showing her up 10 points, though 6% of voters said they are undecided, indicating the race is tight.
Trump has not formally endorsed Earle-Sears in the race, however.
New Jersey: Former Republican state Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., are competing to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
The race is the only other statewide contest in an off-cycle election year and will be closely watched as an indicator of where national politics stand ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
Sherill leads Ciattarelli by eight points, 51% to 43%, in a Quinnipiac University poll released Oct. 30, with 4% undecided.
The race also tests Trump’s staying power with Latinos—as The New York Times notes, all 29 New Jersey townships with a majority Hispanic population swung in Trump’s favor by an average of 25 points in 2024 compared to the 2020 election—and how they vote could indicate whether their enthusiasm for Trump will transfer to other Republican candidates.
Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli.
New York City: Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, faces as his main competitor former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat who is running as an independent to replace scandal-plagued Democratic Mayor Eric Adams.
Mamdani’s candidacy could threaten vulnerable Democrats who represent New York swing districts, as Republicans have sought to bill his success as a “radical insurgent movement in the Democrat Party,” a characterization House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., used after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., endorsed him.
Adams, who was charged with bribery in September 2024, though the charges were later dropped, ended his re-election bid and endorsed Cuomo, who resigned from his post as governor amid a sexual misconduct scandal in 2021.
A trio of new polls this week, from Marist University, Quinnipiac University and Emerson College, show Mamdani leading by a range of 10-26 points, while polls show Republican Curtis Sliwa holds 14%-21% of support.
Sliwa could spoil Cuomo’s ability to win the race by drawing away Republican voters who would be more likely to vote for the former governor over Mamdani.
Trump has not endorsed a candidate but has blasted Sliwa’s presence in the race, calling him “not exactly prime time” and saying he “would rather have a Democrat than a communist” for mayor.
California: Voters will decide whether to approve Proposition 50, which would authorize a new congressional map that could flip the advantage to Democrats in five House districts held by Republicans.
Democrats are seeking to balance the scales with the GOP after the Texas state legislature approved a map that would likely allow Republicans to flip five seats next year.
Surprising Fact
Virginia will elect its first female governor Tuesday.
Key Background
Democrats seeking to rebuild the party’s messaging strategy in the wake of a bruising 2024 election cycle will look to New Jersey, Virginia and New York City as testing grounds for what’s landing with voters. If Sherill and Spanberger win by significant margins, it could indicate an appetite for more moderate candidates. If the races are closer than expected, and Mamdani wins in New York, Democrats are likely to view it as a sign that progressives can mobilize voters. For Republicans, the elections could be seen as a barometer of how voters view Trump’s aggressive second-term agenda, as polls show his approval rating is historically low and has dropped since January, though his support among Republicans remains strong.
Further Reading
Virginia Democrats Will Try To Redraw Congressional Maps To Counter GOP Efforts (Forbes)
Billionaires Ackman And Musk Blast Zohran Mamdani’s NYC Primary Win—Catsimatidis Predicts Adams Could Win (Forbes)
‘Trump Effect’ Is Winsome Earle-Sears’ ‘Biggest Problem’ In Virginia Governor’s Race: Former GOP Rep (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/10/30/election-day-2024-these-are-the-races-to-watch-and-what-they-say-about-national-political-trends/
