Ford Motor (F) Stock: Cramer Warns of Drop Below $11 as Fire Impact Looms Over Earnings

TLDR

• Jim Cramer warned Ford stock could drop below $11 due to damage from a major fire at a key aluminum plant
• Ford reports earnings Thursday after market close with analysts expecting flat revenue of $46.33 billion year-over-year
• The company beat revenue expectations by 7.8% last quarter with $50.18 billion in revenues
• Analysts have largely maintained their estimates over the past 30 days heading into the earnings report
• Ford shares are up 7.7% over the last month with an average analyst price target of $11.50 compared to current price of $12.56

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Ford faces a crucial test Thursday when it reports quarterly earnings after the market close. The automaker must address concerns about a fire at a critical aluminum plant that could weigh on its financial results.

Ford Motor Company, F

Jim Cramer expressed caution about the stock during his recent market commentary. He pointed to the fire damage at the aluminum facility as a major concern.

The fire at the aluminum plant disrupted multiple parts of Ford’s operations. Cramer mentioned this issue again when responding to a viewer question on October 10.

Earnings Expectations

Analysts forecast Ford will report revenue of $46.33 billion for the quarter. That would represent flat growth compared to the same period last year.

The projection marks a slowdown from the 5.5% increase Ford posted in last year’s third quarter. Adjusted earnings are expected at $0.36 per share.

Last quarter told a different story. Ford delivered $50.18 billion in revenue, beating analyst estimates by 7.8%.

The company posted 5% year-over-year revenue growth. Ford also exceeded expectations for adjusted operating income.

Over the past two years, Ford has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates just once. The company has beaten top-line expectations by an average of 4.1%.

Recent Performance and Outlook

Ford shares have climbed 7.7% over the past month. That outpaces the 1.8% average gain across the industrials sector during the same timeframe.

The stock currently trades at $12.56. Analysts maintain an average price target of $11.50 for Ford shares.

Analyst estimates have remained stable over the last 30 days. Most covering the stock have reconfirmed their projections rather than making changes.

Industry peers have shown mixed results. General Motors reported flat year-over-year revenue but beat expectations by 7.9%.

Vicor posted stronger numbers with revenue up 18.5%. The company topped analyst estimates by 15.7%.

The aluminum plant fire remains the wildcard in Ford’s earnings equation. Cramer’s warning reflects uncertainty about how deeply the disruption will cut into results.

Thursday’s report will reveal whether Ford can maintain its track record of beating estimates. The company faces questions about production impacts and potential cost pressures from the fire.

Ford reports after the closing bell Thursday with investors watching closely for any guidance on fire-related damages.

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