Next week’s macro outlook: Gold prices have risen for nine consecutive weeks and are facing the “guillotine” of CPI. Will the bulls be buried in the tenth week?

PANews reported on October 18th that with Trump's Friday remarks easing trade tensions and a rebound in regional bank stocks, Wall Street finally saw a positive market close after an anxious week. Spot gold has achieved its ninth consecutive week of gains, a rare phenomenon. Wall Street is about to enter a critical week for deciphering the true state of American businesses: third-quarter earnings reports are entering their peak, and inflation data will also be released. The following are key market observations for the new week:

At 22:00 on Monday, the U.S. Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate in September

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve held a payment innovation conference to discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization. At 21:00, Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller delivered an opening speech at the Federal Reserve Board's payment innovation conference.

At 03:30 on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller delivered closing remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Payment Innovation Conference;

At 20:30 on Friday, the U.S. September unadjusted CPI annual rate, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted CPI/core CPI monthly rate, and the U.S. September unadjusted core CPI annual rate will be released;

At 21:45 on Friday, the preliminary value of the US October S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI was released.

At 22:00 on Friday, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the United States in October, the final value of the one-year inflation rate forecast in the United States in October, and the annualized total number of new home sales in the United States in September will be released.

Federal Reserve officials entered a blackout period before their interest rate meeting. Despite the ongoing impasse over the shutdown, recent Fed comments have prompted investors to increase dovish bets. International spot gold prices have risen for nine consecutive weeks, only the fifth time since the introduction of free currency convertibility in the 1970s, though gold prices have never risen for ten consecutive weeks in history. In addition to trade tensions, the Fed's dovish rhetoric has also supported gold prices this week.

As the US government shutdown continues, the market will focus on Friday's September CPI, the only major data release next week. Regardless of the data's performance, investors are almost unanimous in their expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its October 28-29 meeting, having already signaled an end to quantitative tightening. Unless the CPI shows a significant overheating, it's unlikely to change current interest rate expectations.