The Great Migration: What The Dow-To-Gold Ratio Is Telling Us

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The Great Migration: What The Dow-To-Gold Ratio Is Telling Us

by Tyler Durden

Authored...

Authored by Bryan Lutz, Editor at Dollarcollapse.com,

It takes about 13 ounces of gold to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow-to-gold ratio prices the entire American stock market. And it does it in the one currency no central bank can print. Over the past century, it tells the same story.

It measures when the US stock market is overvalued… when it’s promising too much.

And there are a lot of promises that don’t look as good as they should these days.

A bond pays only if the issuer stays solvent.

A dollar holds its value only if the people who print it show restraint.

Yet, tangible wealth answers to no one. An ounce of gold is worth an ounce of gold whether a single counterparty keeps their word, which is what makes gold an honest denominator in the Dow-to-Gold ratio.

The ratio goes up, and it comes down. During the great manias of the twentieth century, paper looked invincible: 18 ounces to buy the Dow in 1929, 28 in 1966, 41 at the top of the dot-com boom in 2000. Then the tide went out, bubbles popped and the markets turned to commodities over equities.

As the ratio goes down, eventually it hits a bottom.

The same Dow cost almost nothing in metal, barely 2 ounces in 1932 and close to a single ounce in 1980. So, greed priced the top. Fear, and sound money, priced the bottom.

A century in one line:

Every peak in paper has been repriced in gold.

Each top marked a moment the market trusted claims more than the things behind them, and each was followed by a long migration back toward metal that ran for years, not months.

Here is where we correct the record. The move off the 2000 top has been anything but tidy. The ratio fell to roughly 6 by 2011, then the long everything-rally, cheap money layered on cheap money, hauled it back above 19 by 2021. The 2026 equity melt-up has lifted it again, to about 13, even with gold sitting near record highs.

The same story, up close:

However, the long-term trend since 2000 points down. The path has been a bit of a switchback. Anyone waiting for a clean glide toward gold got a decade of reversals instead, which is why we distrust anyone selling a date for gold.

Gold’s historic floor sits between 1 and 2 ounces. From 13, most of that move is still ahead, whenever the switchback resolves. In my opinion, this is not the time to wager a standard 60/40 portfolio as a wager that the denominator stays at or around 13. Stocks, and bonds are unlikely promise-keepers, and believing the dollar behind them holds is just as risky. The denominator is not sitting still. Every deficit the Treasury runs and every dollar the Fed prints wears down the promises the old 60/40 portfolio depends on. For most of the past forty years, it paid anyway. This time it will not.

After twenty-five years, the score still reads the same. Paper is expensive, and gold is patient.

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