Republicans now 'sincerely worried' about Senate seat in a state Trump won by 13 points

Iowa was supposed to be safe Republican ground, but a closely watched Iowa political analyst said Monday the GOP is worried about holding a Senate seat in a state President Donald Trump carried by 13 points just two years ago.

Appearing on Democratic strategist Joe Trippi's "On the Ground" podcast, Laura Belin, who runs the progressive Iowa site Bleeding Heartland, said the open contest to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst has become a real fight.

"It's the most exciting election cycle in Iowa that I've ever covered," she said, calling both the race for governor and Senate "competitive."

"The Senate race, when we talked last time, that was viewed as a likely Republican hold. And now the election forecasters have shifted it to lean Republican, and I agree with that rating. But just this week we saw a poll that showed Josh Turek a little bit ahead, so I can tell you that Republicans are sincerely worried about Ashley Hinson in that Senate race," she said.

A Fox News poll conducted in late June found Turek ahead of Hinson, the Trump-endorsed congresswoman, 50% to 46% among registered voters. After Turek won his primary, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."

Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist who uses a wheelchair, got a major lift in the primary from VoteVets, which spent nearly $10 million boosting him. Though he never served in the military, Turek said he was born with spina bifida tied to his father's exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam.

Belin argued Hinson is vulnerable partly because she has tied herself tightly to Trump even as his standing slips.

Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024 but now sits underwater there, and Belin noted a libertarian on the ballot could siphon disaffected Republicans away from Hinson.

Republicans still hold a voter-registration edge approaching 200,000. But Belin said she has not seen a single poll putting Hinson at or near 50%, adding of Trump's standing, "It's clearly underwater."

Something's Happening in Iowa | On the Ground with Joe Trippi & Reporter Laura Belin by Lincoln Square

The midterms just got interesting in a reliably red state.

Read on Substack