Bitcoin (BTC) Price: BTC Breaks $63,000 and On-Chain Data Is Flashing a Bottom Signal

TLDR

• Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 for the first time in two weeks, up 1.4% in 24 hours
• XRP led major gains, rising 5.3% to $1.18, overtaking USDC in market cap
• Bitcoin’s realized P&L ratio dropped to a 43-month low of -0.35, a level linked to past market bottoms
• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the bottom is “closer than ever” and a new bull market could come in fall
• Macro tailwinds including Fed Chair comments on inflation and a soft jobs report helped drive the move

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Bitcoin crossed $63,000 on Saturday, July 4, reversing the losses it recorded at the end of June. The move puts BTC at its highest level in two weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Over 24 hours, Bitcoin gained 1.4%, and was up 3.6% on the week, according to CoinDesk data. The rally came during thin holiday trading with U.S. markets closed for Independence Day.

XRP was the standout performer among major tokens. It climbed 5.3% to $1.18 and was up nearly 10% on the week. That move pushed XRP past the USDC stablecoin into fifth place by market cap, at around $73 billion.

Ether added 3.2% on the day to about $1,793, up 11.5% over seven days. Solana held near $82.50 with a 13.2% weekly gain, and Dogecoin rose 2.6%.

What Drove the Move

The week’s gains were built on a more favorable macro backdrop. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have come down. A soft June jobs report added to that, and short sellers were squeezed out as prices rose.

That combination pushed Bitcoin from below $60,000 to above $63,000 in five trading sessions.

Analyst Ted Pillows flagged on X that Bitcoin had reached a key resistance level. He noted that a breakout above $62,800 could push the price toward $65,000.

Santiment Intelligence also weighed in, noting that Bitcoin is up 6.1% since June 30, while gold gained 4.8% and the S&P 500 stayed flat. Santiment said buyers stepped back in near key support after weeks of fear, ETF outflows, and weak sentiment.

What the On-Chain Data Shows

Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio fell to -0.35, a 43-month low. This level has not been seen since December 2022, shortly after the FTX collapse sent Bitcoin below $16,000.

Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant noted the indicator has historically marked BTC price bottoms. Similar readings occurred in 2015 and 2019 before rallies followed.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the recent STRC preferred stock selloff from Strategy squeezed out excess leverage and likely brought the market closer to a bottom.

Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading just 16% above its realized price. Historically, that level has preceded forward returns of 41% at six months and 81% at 12 months.

Bitcoin entered the third quarter at 21-month lows after a 50% drawdown from its October high of $126,080. It hit a near two-year low of $58,190 on June 25 before the current recovery began.

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