AeroVironment Stock Jumps 19% After Record Earnings and Massive Army Counter-Drone Contract

Key Stats for AeroVironment Stock

• Price change for AeroVironment stock: 11%
• $AVAV Share Price as of Jul. 2: $191
• 52-Week High: $418
• $AVAV Stock Price Target: $259

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What Happened?

AeroVironment (AVAV) stock surged after a one-two punch of good news hit on the same day. The company reported record Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings, and the U.S. Army awarded AeroVironment a $500 million contract for counter-unmanned aerial systems capabilities.

The contract runs through June 2029 and covers procurement of commercial counter-drone and counter-small-UAS systems.

AVAV Stock Earnings vs Estimates in Billion USD (TIKR)

The earnings were equally strong.

• Q4 revenue reached $641.6 million, representing 31% organic growth year-over-year.
• For the full fiscal year 2026, AeroVironment posted record revenue of nearly $2 billion, ahead of its most recent guidance.
• Adjusted EPS came in at $1.84 for the quarter, beating Wall Street estimates of $1.48
• Full-year adjusted EPS was $3.31, well above the high end of guidance.

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What the Market Is Telling Us About AeroVironment Stock

AeroVironment stock has been building momentum as demand for drone and counter-drone technology reaches unprecedented levels. This quarter validated that thesis in a big way.

The company’s Missiles and Fire Control equivalent, the Precision Strike and Defensive Systems group, drove outsized growth.

Switchblade loitering munition sales, RedDragon one-way attack systems, and the Titan counter-UAS product all contributed.

Titan sales more than doubled over the prior fiscal year, and the Switchblade acceptance testing process with the U.S. government was also streamlined during the quarter, which should improve cash conversion going forward.

The BlueHalo acquisition continues to pay off.

It nearly doubled the company’s size and added capabilities in directed energy, laser communications and space technology.

LOCUST, the company’s laser weapon system, achieved a 100% drone intercept success rate during a recent maritime demonstration aboard a U.S. Navy ship, a significant milestone for what management calls a “game-changing” platform.

AVAV Stock Valuation Model (TIKR)

Looking ahead,

• Management issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion, representing roughly 10% growth at the midpoint.
• Adjusted EBITDA is guided at $305 million to $325 million.
• The company also has a $2.7 billion total backlog supporting the outlook.

AeroVironment’s stock still faces near-term uncertainty regarding government budget timing. Management doesn’t expect a full defense budget to be approved until at least December or January, which could create some lumpiness in early fiscal 2027.

But longer-term, the pipeline of contract opportunities across loitering munitions, counter-UAS, and directed energy is as strong as it has ever been.

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How Much Upside Does AeroVironment Stock Have From Here?

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!