Marvell (MRVL) Stock Falls 9% — But Is the Amazon Trainium Deal a Hidden Upside?

TLDR

• Amazon plans to sell its Trainium AI chips to external customers beyond AWS, with Marvell as a key design and manufacturing partner.
• MRVL opened at $272.05, with a 52-week range of $61.44 to $329.88 and a market cap of $237.99 billion.
• Q1 earnings came in at $0.80 EPS, matching estimates, with revenue of $2.42 billion — up 27.6% year over year.
• Multiple analysts raised price targets after Q1 results, with a consensus target of $239.81 and an average “Moderate Buy” rating.
• Institutional investors are adding to positions, but insider selling and concentration risk with Amazon remain watch points.

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Marvell Technology sits at an interesting crossroads right now. Amazon is moving to sell its Trainium AI chips to third-party data centers outside of AWS, and Marvell — as a design and manufacturing partner — is directly tied to how far that effort goes.

Marvell Technology, Inc., MRVL

MRVL opened at $272.05 on Thursday, down 8.67% on the day. The stock has had a sharp run over the past year, going from a 52-week low of $61.44 to a high of $329.88.

The Amazon Trainium news matters because it widens Marvell’s potential market. Until now, the assumption was that Marvell’s role was primarily inside AWS infrastructure. If Trainium moves into external data centers, that changes the math on addressable revenue.

Marvell already showed strong AI momentum in its most recent quarter. Q1 revenue came in at $2.42 billion, just above analyst estimates of $2.41 billion, and up 27.6% compared to the same period last year.

EPS for Q1 hit $0.80, matching the consensus exactly. The company also guided Q2 2027 EPS in the range of $0.88 to $0.98, pointing to continued growth expectations.

Analysts have responded positively. Citigroup lifted its target to $215 with a buy rating. Jefferies raised its target to $235, also with a buy. Susquehanna moved its target from $100 to $230. The consensus sits at $239.81, with 28 buy ratings, three strong buys, and six holds.

Institutional Buying Picks Up

Institutional interest has been ticking up. Cane Capital Partners grew its position by 82.9% in Q1, adding 5,130 shares for a total of 11,321. IFM Investors, Redwood Wealth, and Premier Path Wealth Partners all increased holdings during the same period. Overall, 83.51% of the stock is held by institutions.

New stakes were also opened. Tcfg Wealth Management and Impact Partnership Wealth both initiated positions during Q1.

On the insider side, the picture is more mixed. COO Chris Koopmans sold 10,000 shares in April under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan at $110.24. CFO Willem Meintjes sold 30,000 shares in April at $134.01 to cover tax obligations on equity vesting. In total, insiders sold around 177,273 shares worth roughly $26.8 million in the last 90 days.

Concentration Risk Remains a Key Watch Point

Marvell’s deeper involvement with Amazon’s Trainium program is a positive, but it also heightens an existing concern: revenue concentration. A large portion of Marvell’s AI-related growth is tied to a handful of hyperscalers, and Amazon becoming a bigger piece of that only adds to that sensitivity.

Any delays, redesigns, or slower-than-expected uptake of Trainium in external data centers could weigh on Marvell’s custom silicon revenue. Analysts have also raised questions about whether the stock’s valuation — currently at a P/E of 93.17 — has moved ahead of fundamentals after its sharp rally.

Marvell also has custom AI chip work with Microsoft and Nvidia. Whether management frames Trainium as one large anchor program or part of a broader mix will be worth watching on future earnings calls.

The company is set to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share on July 30, with a record date of July 10.

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