Bitcoin forecast claims $145,000 target for 2026

A recently resurfaced social media post has revived interest in an anonymous Bitcoin price forecast that is said to have accurately predicted price levels between 2019 and 2024. The shared image highlights a final target of $145,000 for October 2026. Despite the buzz, there are significant questions regarding the authenticity and source of the information within both the post and the image.

Source is unverifiable

The screenshot, initially posted by the crypto-focused account Corleone, reportedly originates from an anonymous 4chan-style message dated December 20, 2018. It claims a specific group controls about 90% of all Bitcoin in existence and lists target prices spanning October 2019 to October 2026.

At first glance, the predictions appear notably accurate. Bitcoin traded near $67,000 in November 2021 and around $16,000 during the bear market trough in November 2022. This perceived accuracy quickly drew widespread attention online.

A major issue is the complete lack of any verifiable archive link, user marker, or identifying information that could link the post to an individual. The largely anonymous nature of 4chan means that, unless historically archived, it’s impossible to prove that these predictions were made prior to the ensuing market events.

Old and recent images show clear differences

A post from July 2024 on Binance Square features similar claims, including the statement “we hold about 90% of total supply” and matching targets. However, in that earlier version, the price for Bitcoin in September 2024 was listed at $105,400.

In the new viral image, the level for September 2024 has been revised to $74,000, with an additional projection of $145,000 for October 2026. Such changes raise the suspicion that the forecast or image may have been modified over time to better fit Bitcoin’s actual price trajectory.

Market cap calculation inconsistencies

The forecasted image also claims this prediction would imply a $5.7 trillion market cap for Bitcoin, with Bitcoin dominance ranging from 40% to 47%. Yet, a price of $145,000 and a circulating supply of about 20 million Bitcoin would only put market capitalization at roughly $2.9 trillion. Even using the max supply of 21 million, the market cap remains around $3.05 trillion.

The $5.7 trillion figure therefore does not calculate accurately if applied to Bitcoin alone. If it was meant to refer to the entire cryptocurrency market, this was not made clear, raising more doubts about the credibility of the information.

Supply concentration claim doesn’t match blockchain data

Another striking claim is that a single group holds about 90% of the total Bitcoin supply. Currently, Bitcoin’s circulating supply is roughly 20.04 million, with a maximum cap at 21 million. This would mean a group would control about 18 million Bitcoin—an assertion not supported by blockchain analytics.

According to Bitinfocharts, the top 100 Bitcoin addresses hold about 15.27% of the total supply, while the largest 10,000 addresses control approximately 53.89%. Bitinfocharts is a data platform known for tracking blockchain wealth distributions and address rankings.

This data demonstrates that the 90% claim is not supported by current on-chain evidence. As things stand, there is no proof that an anonymous 4chan user correctly predicted large-scale Bitcoin price moves out to 2026.

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