PAGASA warns of possible ‘very strong’ El Niño by year end; public urged to prepare for looming dry spells

Amid the onset of El Niño, there is a likelihood that it may intensify into a “very strong El Niño” by the end of the year, causing impacts such as enhancing the southwest monsoon and tropical cyclone, while bringing dry conditions to parts of the country, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday.

The phenomenon’s onset was officially announced last Tuesday by PAGASA, which noted that El Niño conditions are already present in the Tropical Pacific with an 80% chance of fully developing during the June-July-August season and persisting until early 2027.

As El Niño has already started, the question now shifts to the phenomenon’s potential strength and impact, Ana Liza S. Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, said.

She said that while it may start as weak or moderate, there is an increasing chance of it becoming a strong El Niño from September to November 2026.

It may even intensify into a “very strong El Niño” between October and January 2027, based on historical climatology, which shows a higher probability of 30% to 37%, Ms. Solis said.

“Compared to historical climatology, this shows a higher likelihood that it could become a very strong El Niño,” Ms. Solis said in mixed English and Filipino during a press conference marking Typhoon and Flood Awareness Week.

“It’s like a fever that could lead to convulsions—the ocean is ‘convulsing’ and it is already extremely warm, with a projected warming of more than 2 degrees,” she added.

PAGASA warned that during El Niño, droughts and dry spells are expected in some parts of the country toward the latter part of the year, while above-normal conditions may occur in the western sections of Luzon and Visayas during the Southwest Monsoon, locally known as the Habagat season.

Ms. Solis said that while the phenomenon may decrease the overall frequency of tropical cyclones toward the end of the year, the storms that may develop are likely to be stronger. Based on historical records, these storms are also more likely to make landfall.

Dr. Nathaniel T. Servando, PAGASA administrator, said that amid looming dry conditions caused by El Niño, it may lead to water shortages affecting critical sectors such as agriculture, energy, and health.

He urged the public to take early action while its full impacts are still months away.

“The time to prepare is now,” Mr. Cervando said during the press conference. “Experience has shown that communities, local governments, and sectors that prepare early are better able to reduce losses and protect lives and livelihoods,” he also said.

The PAGASA chief also guaranteed that the agency will continue to closely monitor the El Niño phenomenon to provide regular updates and advisories to the public. — Edg Adrian A. Eva