The Week Ahead: SpaceX IPO, Fed Interest Rate Decision, and US-Iran Deal Explained

TLDR

• SpaceX debuted Friday at $150/share, closing at a $2.1 trillion market cap — the largest IPO in history
• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting Wednesday; rates expected to hold
• Inflation hit a three-year high last month, with both consumer and producer prices rising faster than expected
• US and Iran may be nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices lower
• Key earnings this week from Accenture, CarMax, Kroger, and Jabil

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SpaceX made history last Friday when it went public on the Nasdaq, opening at $150 per share — an 11% premium over its $135 IPO price. Shares climbed roughly 20% through the session, pushing the company’s market cap to around $2.1 trillion.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

That made SpaceX the sixth-largest company in the US market. It also made Elon Musk the first trillionaire of the modern era.

The IPO raised more money than any public offering in history. Stocks broadly gained on the news, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% Friday and 0.6% on the week.

A New Fed Chair Steps Up

All eyes now shift to Wednesday, when the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting. Markets widely expect rates to stay unchanged.

What investors are watching closely is new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Wednesday is his first FOMC meeting since being sworn in on May 22. His post-decision press conference will be the first real look at how he plans to handle rising inflation.

Source: Forex Factory

Consumer prices in May rose at their fastest pace since 2023. Producer prices rose at their fastest rate since November 2022. Hiring has come in above estimates for several months straight.

Warsh has previously argued that the Fed should not be too detailed in its forward guidance, which could make markets more sensitive to each new data point as investors try to guess the Fed’s next move.

President Trump has pushed for rate cuts, but analysts at BNP Paribas say conditions this year look very different from when the Fed last cut rates in the fall.

Macquarie strategists also flagged that AI investment could be contributing to inflation in the short term, which would complicate Warsh’s view that AI is disinflationary over time.

US-Iran Talks and Oil Prices

There was some positive news on the geopolitical front Friday. US and Iranian officials appear to be close to a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed during the ongoing conflict.

Iranian state media reported the deal could involve a US troop withdrawal, the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and $300 billion in reconstruction plans. US officials described terms including the destruction of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and a phased asset release tied to compliance.

Oil prices fell on the news but remain well above pre-war levels. Rystad Energy estimates the conflict has already caused cumulative losses of one billion barrels of oil, with that figure on track to nearly double by year-end.

A deal, if signed, would still mean a long road back for energy markets.

Earnings to Watch

CarMax reports first-quarter results Wednesday morning, with investors watching how the used-car market is holding up under new CEO Keith Barr. Accenture reports Thursday, with concerns about federal spending cuts and AI competition weighing on sentiment. Kroger and Jabil also report this week.

May retail sales data drops Wednesday, giving the latest read on how consumers are handling higher prices.

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