Standard Chartered’s Kendrick Calls $59K the Bitcoin Cycle Bottom; Holds $100K BTC and $4K ETH Year-End Targets

TLDR:

• Standard Chartered’s Kendrick confirms Bitcoin’s $59K level as the definitive cycle low for 2025.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions exceeded $5.72B since May, driven partly by SpaceX IPO liquidity needs.
• Kendrick maintains $100K Bitcoin and $4K Ethereum price targets through year-end despite the selloff.
• A potential U.S.-Iran peace deal and falling oil prices could ease macro pressure on crypto markets.

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Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick declared the crypto winter over, maintaining his year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum.

Kendrick confirmed Bitcoin’s drop to around $59,000 as the cycle bottom, citing heavy spot ETF redemptions and SpaceX IPO-related liquidity pressure as the primary drivers behind the recent selloff.

With those headwinds now clearing, he expects renewed buying activity and returning ETF inflows to support a sustained recovery through year-end.

Kendrick Confirms $59K as Cycle Bottom After Sharp ETF Selloff

Bitcoin touched $59,375 on June 5, marking a 53% decline from its October 6 all-time high of $126,000. Kendrick identified that level as the definitive cycle low for the current market. In a note published Friday, he stated: “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.”

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded some of their steepest redemptions since launch during the period. Total outflows surpassed $5.72 billion from the second week of May.

Kendrick noted that ETF holders were anecdotally liquidating positions to free up cash for the SpaceX IPO, which began trading on Nasdaq at around $150 on Friday.

SpaceX shares climbed roughly 26% above the IPO price shortly after listing. The launch also drew significant activity on crypto derivatives platforms.

Hyperliquid recorded high-volume trading on SpaceX crypto contracts, with valuations reaching up to $2.4 trillion at points during the session.

With the IPO now complete, that specific source of selling pressure should ease. Kendrick expects the removal of that liquidity drain to allow ETF inflows to recover, reinforcing the $59,000 floor as a durable base for the next leg higher.

$100K BTC and $4K ETH Targets Hold as Macro Pressure Eases

Alongside the IPO effect, Kendrick pointed to easing geopolitical tensions as a second catalyst supporting the recovery. A potential U.S.-Iran peace deal discussed at the G7 could prevent further oil price escalation.

Cooling crude prices would reduce upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, lifting a key macro constraint on crypto markets.

Brent crude fell to around $87 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate traded near $85. President Trump indicated a peace deal with Iran was likely, though he later reversed course on Truth Social, saying the publicly reported terms “was not what had been agreed” and warning Tehran’s officials to quickly “get their act together.”

Despite the uncertainty, Kendrick kept his year-end price targets unchanged. He added that Ethereum may outperform Bitcoin in the near term as market conditions normalize. At the time of his note, Bitcoin was trading just below $64,000.

To confirm the market floor, Kendrick outlined three metrics to watch. He expects Strategy’s Michael Saylor to announce a fresh Bitcoin purchase on Monday, net-positive daily inflows to return to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and international oil prices to continue declining through the week.

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