Iran Nuclear Risk Rises After US-Israel Strikes as Talks Continue

TLDR

• The IAEA says nuclear proliferation risk from Iran has increased since US-Israeli strikes in June 2025, with inspections now halted
• Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile is no longer being monitored weekly, raising concerns about potential weapons use
• The US and Israel hit Iran less than 24 hours after an IAEA report flagged activity near nuclear sites
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran has shown willingness to negotiate aspects of its nuclear program for the first time
• Iran’s state media claimed talks had stopped, but Trump denied this, saying conversations have been ongoing daily

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Iran’s nuclear stockpile is no longer being monitored by the IAEA after US-Israeli strikes in June 2025, and the US and Iran are still — or possibly not — talking. Here’s what we know.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned member states that the risk of Iran secretly developing nuclear weapons has grown since US and Israeli military strikes hit the country in June 2025.

Before those strikes, IAEA inspectors visited Iran’s nuclear sites weekly. Those inspections have now stopped.

The IAEA said in a 119-page internal document circulated last month that it “can’t draw any conclusion” about Iran’s nuclear material. The agency flagged that a large amount of high-enriched uranium can no longer be verified.

Inspections dropped by more than half after Iran put new restrictions in place following the 12-day war. Monitors have not returned to damaged sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.

At those locations, Iran held 440.9 kilograms and 8,599.6 kilograms of lower enriched uranium when last observed.

What the IAEA Is Warning

The agency’s document states plainly that the longer the material stays outside monitoring, the greater the risk it could be used for non-peaceful purposes.

The IAEA board is scheduled to meet June 8 in Vienna. The strikes last June came just one day after the board censured Iran for blocking its inspectors.

The White House has said Iran’s nuclear program was destroyed by the strikes. But the US has also tried to negotiate access to the uranium stockpile, suggesting it remains a live issue.

President Trump has floated the idea of exporting the material from Iran or rendering it inert under IAEA supervision inside the country.

Talks Continue — Or Do They?

The question of whether talks are even happening has itself become a point of contention.

Iran’s Fars news agency reported Tuesday that Iran and the US had stopped exchanging messages several days ago. State-affiliated outlet Tasnim reported Iranian negotiators would stop passing messages through intermediaries and that Iran would move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said talks are ongoing. He told senators that Iran has shown a willingness to discuss its nuclear program that it had not shown before.

He added there is no guarantee talks will lead to a deal acceptable to the Senate or the American people.

Rubio said Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a condition of any de-escalation. He said Iran needs to declare the strait open, stop charging tolls, help clear mines, and commit to not firing on commercial vessels.

Congress has grown increasingly uneasy about the war. Senate Democrats accused the administration of avoiding oversight and bypassing lawmakers.

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