Trump ridiculed by political expert for overestimating his influence on voters

Political science professor Seth Masket issued a warning on Thursday that the Republican Party has a huge problem when it comes to President Donald Trump.

As the 2026 midterms approach, many Republicans are being forced to turn more toward Trump in an election that he can't deliver for them.

For the past year, Trump's low approval, erratic demands and increasingly self-serving behavior have made it more difficult for the GOP to govern and even harder to protect their own political futures. Masket argues that Trump’s party has become trapped between backing his revenge-driven agenda and trying to dodge backlash from voters. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are increasingly annoyed with Trump's outsized demands and the House GOP is beginning to show signs of resistance.

In the background, polls show Trump is on weak ground, particularly when it comes to the affordability crisis. Even Trump voters are abandoning him when it comes to his approval of his handling of inflation.

Trump thinks he's so amazing and beloved that, if Republicans prove their loyalty, it's only natural they'll win.

"Perhaps the best expression of this belief is the Republican Party’s intended midterm convention this September," wrote Masket. "This is a pretty novel move, driven almost entirely by President Trump. Details on the midterm convention are vague so far, but it looks likely to be held in Dallas or Las Vegas. My guess is that its effect on Republican fortunes in the fall is likely to be zero or negative. But it also nicely highlights Trump’s idea of just what conventions are for (which is not what conventions are for)."

Analysts have referred to it as a cult, with one conservative warning this week that it's entering the Jonestown phase. So, instead of talking about the issues that Americans desperately need lawmakers to fix, Masket said that the White House wants to highlight Trump and his accomplishments.

As chief of staff Susie Wiles explained it, "Typically in the midterms it’s not about who’s sitting at the White House. You localize the election, and you keep the federal officials out of it. We’re actually going to turn that on its head and put him on the ballot because so many of those low propensity voters are Trump voters."

As CNN data analyst Harry Enten revealed on Thursday, even Trump fans are backing away from him. Trump's net approval on inflation with his own voters before the war was up 37 percent, but now it's down four points.

"This is where the decline is coming from. Trump voters have turned on [him] when it comes to inflation pre-war," said Enten.

So, hosting a midterm "convention" isn't going to help Republicans much, "because his approval ratings are currently in the mid-30s and his disapproval is around 60," said Masket. When it comes to the "generic ballot," meaning whether people would vote for a random Democrat or Republican, Dems lead by 6-7 percent depending on the poll. So, Republicans are terrified they won't be able to hold onto their jobs.

"This convention totally undermines this and ties them to an unpopular incumbent. My guess is Wiles knows this but can’t convince Trump of it," said Masket.

So, while self-identified MAGA Republicans are loyal to him, it doesn't extend beyond his own personal benefit. At the same time, general election voters already abandoned him and the GOP.

Still, Trump's little convention is likely to happen, regardless of how many people try to explain to him that it's a bad idea and a waste of money.

"Trump. It will just encourage the most Trump-loyal nominees to echo his false claims about election fraud and other conspiracies, which are not popular. And it will only add to a national environment that bodes ill for Republicans in November," Masket closed.

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