Revised PHL Dev’t Plan assumes greater gov’t spending until 2028

THE Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) said the updated Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2028 targets reflect higher government spending and revised fiscal and macroeconomic goals through 2028.

In the PDP 2023-2028 Midterm Update Results Matrices released on May 20, DEPDev estimated that primary expenditure will account for 18.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, up from the 17.6% previous estimate.

Officials have said they expect a pickup in disbursements this year following last year’s underspending as a result of the infrastructure corruption scandal.

However, the government expects primary expenditure to ease to 17.6% of GDP in 2027 and 17.3% in 2028.

Primary expenditure, or spending net of interest payments, rose 2.98% year on year to P1.66 trillion in the first four months, according to the cash operations report of the Bureau of the Treasury.

Including interest payments, expenditure totaled P1.996 trillion, up 5.12% year on year, which was equivalent to 31% of disbursements as approved by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) in December.

On the revenue side, the report projected a revenue-to-GDP ratio of 16.2% in 2026, 16% in 2027, and 16.3% in 2028, unchanged from the projections outlined in the midterm update released in August 2025.

These projections are higher than those outlined in the medium-term fiscal program approved by the DBCC in December, where the revenue-to-GDP ratio was projected at 15.8% in 2026, 15.6% in 2027, and 15.7% in 2028.

In the first four months, revenue collection rose 9.99% to P1.67 trillion, representing 34.66% of the P4.82-trillion program for the year.

Tax revenue is expected to account for 15.5% of GDP by 2028, while value-added tax revenues are projected to increase to P24.4 billion by the same year, the recently released matrices showed.

The updated matrices also projected a National Government (NG) fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio of 5.3% in 2026 before easing to 4.8% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028.

Outstanding NG debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 60-63% in 2026, easing to 59-62% in 2027 and 58-61% in 2028.

The debt-to-GDP ratio hit 65.2% in the first quarter, the highest level since 2005.

The National Government’s outstanding debt rose 1.8% to P18.49 trillion at the end of March from P18.16 trillion a month earlier.

Meanwhile, the results matrices projected the general government (GG) debt stock-to-GDP ratio to increase to 55.6% this year, before declining to 55.4% in 2027 and to 54.7% in 2028.

DEPDev described the GG debt stock-to-GDP ratio as a core indicator that “presents a more holistic view of the government’s liabilities.” — Justine Irish D. Tabile