Tesla (TSLA) Stock Climbs as the SpaceX Hype Machine Kicks Into Gear

TLDR

• Tesla stock is up around 1-2% in premarket Tuesday, trading near $430
• SpaceX’s upcoming IPO could value Elon Musk’s rocket company at $2 trillion
• Tesla holds 19 million SpaceX shares and has multiple business ties with the company
• Tesla Q1 earnings beat EPS estimates at $0.41/share but missed on revenue at $22.39 billion
• Wall Street has a “Hold” consensus on TSLA with an average price target of $395.20

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Tesla (TSLA) stock edged higher in premarket trading Tuesday, up around 1% to $430.30, as investors kept one eye on the electric vehicle maker and the other firmly on SpaceX.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The broader market was also in positive territory, with S&P 500 and Dow futures rising 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. Sentiment got a mild boost after President Trump said Iran negotiations were “proceeding nicely,” though oil prices jumped 2.8% to around $96 a barrel after the U.S. struck targets in Southern Iran on Monday evening.

Tesla has fallen roughly 5% in 2026 so far, though it’s still up about 26% over the past 12 months. The stock opened Tuesday at $426.01, with a 52-week range of $273.21 to $498.83.

The SpaceX IPO filing went public last week, and it’s all Wall Street wants to talk about right now. The offering could value SpaceX at $2 trillion, which would make it one of the largest IPOs ever.

Tesla has skin in the game. It holds 19 million SpaceX shares, and the two companies have been getting closer — SpaceX has purchased services from Tesla, and the pair are collaborating on a semiconductor fab and an AI assistant.

That has stoked merger speculation, but even if that eventually happens, SpaceX’s IPO is moving ahead regardless.

The SpaceX IPO Overhang

One concern making the rounds: Tesla investors may sell their TSLA position to free up cash to buy into the SpaceX IPO. That kind of rotation could create a headwind for the stock in the near term.

How big that pressure will be remains unclear. It’s a risk that’s hard to quantify until the IPO actually hits.

On the institutional side, MSH Capital Advisors increased its Tesla stake by 300.3% in Q4, picking up 7,812 additional shares to bring its total to 10,413 shares, valued at around $4.68 million. Several other smaller firms also initiated new positions during the same period. Institutional investors collectively own 66.2% of TSLA.

Q1 Earnings and Analyst Ratings

Tesla’s most recent earnings report, posted April 23rd, showed EPS of $0.41 — beating the $0.39 consensus by $0.02. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, up 15.8% year over year, but fell short of the $22.96 billion analysts had expected.

Return on equity was 4.89% and net margin sat at 3.95%. Analysts are forecasting full-year EPS of $1.20.

Analyst sentiment is mixed. Barclays and Jefferies both carry neutral ratings. Morgan Stanley has an equal weight rating with a $415 price target. President Capital nudged its target up to $428 with a Buy rating. Phillip Securities has a Sell with a $215 target.

Across 41 analyst ratings, the consensus sits at Hold — 19 Buy, 17 Hold, 5 Sell — with an average price target of $395.20, below current levels.

On the insider side, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares at $450.00 on May 13th under a pre-arranged trading plan. Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares at $378.11 on April 30th. Total insider sales over the past three months came to roughly $32.2 million worth of stock.

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