Strategy (MSTR) Stock: TD Cowen Is Bullish — The Numbers Back It Up

TLDR

• TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza raised his MSTR price target to $400 from $395, implying 143% upside, while keeping a Buy rating.
• Strategy bought 24,869 Bitcoin for ~$2.01 billion between May 11–17, one of its biggest weekly buys this year.
• The company now holds 843,738 Bitcoin — more than 4% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply.
• Strategy retired ~$1.5 billion of convertible debt at an 8% discount, improving its balance sheet.
• Wall Street consensus is Strong Buy, with an average price target of $324.67, implying ~97% upside.

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TD Cowen has raised its price target on Strategy (MSTR) to $400, up from $395, while keeping a Buy rating on the stock. The new target implies roughly 143% upside from current levels.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

The call came from 5-star analyst Lance Vitanza, who pointed to Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin buying and balance sheet improvements as the key drivers of his outlook.

Strategy stock opened at $164.63 on Wednesday, trading down 1.2% on the day. The stock carries a 52-week range of $104.17 to $457.22 and a beta of 3.59, reflecting how volatile the name can be.

Between May 11 and May 17, Strategy purchased 24,869 Bitcoin for approximately $2.01 billion. That ranks as one of the company’s largest weekly Bitcoin buys of the year.

The company now holds 843,738 Bitcoin in total — giving it ownership of more than 4% of Bitcoin’s entire 21 million supply. No other public company comes close.

Vitanza noted that Strategy’s Bitcoin buying during Q2 has already outpaced earlier expectations. He now expects the company to acquire close to 100,000 Bitcoin in the quarter alone.

How Strategy Is Funding the Buys

Rather than leaning heavily on common stock sales, Strategy has been raising money through its STRC perpetual preferred offering under what Saylor calls the “42/42 Plan.” The company raised about $1.95 billion through that channel in Q2, using most of it to buy more Bitcoin.

TD Cowen addressed investor concerns about dilution, saying the annual preferred dividend payout is only about 2.2% of Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves. The firm also lifted its 2026 Bitcoin yield estimate to 19.8%, up from 18.2%.

Strategy also retired around $1.5 billion in convertible debt at roughly an 8% discount to face value. Vitanza said the move reduces refinancing risk and strengthens the company’s overall financial position.

The firm’s $400 target factors in higher projected Bitcoin gains and an expectation that Bitcoin could reach $140,000 by end of 2026.

Institutional Investors Are Adding Exposure

ProShare Advisors LLC increased its stake in MSTR by 45.7% in Q4, picking up an additional 131,014 shares and ending the quarter with 417,790 shares valued at about $63.5 million.

Other funds also added to their positions. Sei Investments Co. raised its MSTR holdings by 136% during the second quarter. Manufacturers Life Insurance grew its position by 59.4% over the same period.

Institutional investors as a group now own 59.84% of Strategy’s outstanding stock.

On the earnings front, Strategy reported revenue of $124.30 million for its most recent quarter, above the $120.75 million estimate. However, EPS came in at -$38.25, well below the -$0.86 consensus estimate.

Wall Street’s broader view remains bullish. Based on 12 Buys and 1 Hold over the past three months, MSTR carries a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target sits at $324.67, implying about 97% upside from current levels.

Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating on May 11. Benchmark maintained a Buy with a $570 price target on May 6, though it cut from $705.

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