Why the Traditional Four-Year Crypto Cycle May Be Over

The arrival of ETFs, tokenized treasuries, and stablecoin infrastructure has started to shift crypto from a cyclical asset into part of the permanent financial system.

ETFs Reshape Supply Dynamics

One reason cycles are breaking down is the way ETFs change supply and demand. Bitcoin and Ethereum funds launched in 2024 have already pulled in more than $34 billion, drawing capital from pension funds, banks, and advisors. Together they now hold over 5% of BTC and ETH supply — assets that used to be dominated by retail traders. With new listing standards fast-tracking additional products, Solana, XRP, and others may soon follow. Analysts describe this migration as “The Great Crypto Rotation,” where institutions steadily accumulate while retail traders sell, resetting cost bases higher.

Stablecoins are also breaking old patterns. What started as tools for exchange pairs are now powering payments, treasuries, and lending. Tokenized real-world assets — from government bonds to commodities — already account for $30 billion on-chain. Regulators are beginning to recognize their utility too: the CFTC now allows stablecoins as derivatives collateral, while Stripe and Tether are pushing them into everyday commerce. This expansion makes stablecoins less dependent on Bitcoin’s price cycles and more tied to broader financial infrastructure.

New Gateways for Altcoins

Not every project has an ETF yet, but digital asset treasuries (DATs) are filling the gap. By tapping equity markets, projects with real revenue streams can access institutional capital far beyond the retail pool. For venture investors, DATs provide liquidity; for institutions, they open the door to altcoin exposure with more transparency than a token listing.

Real-world asset tokenization has become another bridge. Products like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Franklin Templeton’s BENJI connect traditional capital markets to DeFi protocols, creating on-chain base rates through tokenized treasuries and credit. Instead of yield farming loops, DeFi is beginning to run on genuine collateral.

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From Speculation to Structure

Put together, these changes mark a structural shift. Crypto no longer runs on predictable four-year speculation but is moving toward lasting financial infrastructure. Broad rallies may give way to selective winners, with institutional capital rewarding sustainable models while weaker projects fade.

The halving cycle once defined the industry. Now, institutions are writing a new script — one in which crypto is less about timing cycles and more about building a permanent seat at the table of global finance.

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