Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Drops Under $80K as Wallets Exit at Fastest Pace Since 2024

Key highlights:

• Bitcoin dropped below $80K as Santiment reports 245K wallets exiting in just five days, the fastest since 2024.
• The BTC price decline came from macro risk-off sentiment, $90M in liquidations, and rejection near the $82K resistance level.
• Long-term Bitcoin holder growth has broken its uptrend, raising questions about whether market structure is weakening or resetting.

Bitcoin slipping below $80,000 caught attention, but the bigger story is what’s happening behind the scenes. Data from Santiment shows Bitcoin has lost about 245,000 wallets in just five days. That’s the fastest drop in holders since the summer of 2024.

On the surface, fewer wallets can feel like a warning sign. It usually sounds like people are leaving the market. But when you compare it to past cycles, the picture gets more layered.

Back in mid-2024, more than 900,000 wallets exited over several weeks. At the time, sentiment was weak and the BTC price was trading in a much lower range around $55K–$65K. What followed wasn’t further collapse, but a base that eventually supported a strong move higher later in the cycle.

What’s driving the BTC price right now

The BTC price has also been reacting to broader macro conditions. It dropped about 1.59% in the last 24 hours, moving under $80,000, as risk sentiment weakened across global markets.

A big part of that came from geopolitical tension after reports of rejected diplomatic proposals between the U.S. and Iran, which added uncertainty across risk assets. Bitcoin has been behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset lately, tracking moves in equities more closely than many traders expect.

At the same time, leverage played a role in the downside move. Over $90 million in long positions were liquidated after BTC failed to hold above the $82,000 resistance area. We had a look at the short-term structure, and momentum weakened near that level before selling pressure accelerated.

So it wasn’t one single trigger, but a mix of macro pressure and forced deleveraging.

Why wallets are dropping and what it means

When wallet counts fall, it usually comes down to weaker holders exiting while stronger ones stay put. That tends to leave supply in fewer hands, especially those less likely to sell quickly.

In simple terms, coins move from short-term traders into longer-term holders. If new demand enters later, the price can react faster because there’s less free moving supply. That’s the optimistic interpretation behind the current data.

But there’s a key difference this time. The BTC price is already much closer to high-range territory compared to the 2024 capitulation phase. That changes how traders react because profit-taking becomes more natural at these levels.

The bigger signal: Holder growth is breaking trend

For most of the last cycle, Bitcoin wallet growth was climbing steadily. More addresses holding BTC meant broader participation across the network. That pattern has now expired, and we have seen the number of owners decline from the upper 50 million mark towards the mid-50 million mark.

As things stand, the BTC price is currently trading within a crucial area around the weekly open at $78,500. The price remaining above this level would ensure that the market remains within a wider range of between $78,500 and $81,500.

Should this support level be breached, focus could shift to the $76K-$78K range, assuming macro sentiment remains volatile. CoinCodex's 1-month Bitcoin price prediction places the price at $82,267, notably above where BTC is currently trading, making it one of the more bearish near-term forecasts on the table.

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