HYPE token unlock, whale withdraws $122M: November 29 shakes the market

September 22, 2025, 13:31 UTC — Dateline. Wallet 0x316f has withdrawn approximately $122 million in HYPE, as reported by and public on-chain analysis.

Market evidence and analytics from Nansen confirm significant movements towards private wallets and exchanges in the days leading up to the ATH.

The operation brings renewed attention to the unlock scheduled for November 29, 2025 and the potential selling pressure on the Hyperliquid token, a topic the market is closely monitoring.

According to the data collected by our on-chain analysis team between September 1 and 22, 2025, over 50% of the inflows from wallets classified as “whale” were routed to centralized exchanges, temporarily reducing the order book depth.

Analysts from the desk also report that, in a series of similar cases observed over the past 12 months, significant transfers intensify 7–14 days before an ATH, an indication compatible with early profit taking. These observations reinforce the active monitoring of the reference wallets in the coming weeks.

The Fact: $122M Withdrawal and Recent ATH

The address 0x316f transferred HYPE worth approximately $122M. According to Cointelegraph, the tokens were purchased at around $12 approximately nine months ago, generating an unrealized profit of about $90M.

The movement came close to a recent all-time high, with the price pushed up to $59.29 – an ATH marked in the current week. In this context, attention is focused on the vesting schedule expected at the end of November, now considered a crucial point for sentiment.

Expected Impact of Hyperliquid Unlock

The unlocking of tokens allocated to the team and contributors could increase the circulating supply and trigger temporary selling pressure.

The effect will depend on the portion actually sold, the liquidity on various exchanges, and any absorption initiatives (such as buyback or staking) implemented by the team. It should be noted that, in the absence of coordinated interventions, the most plausible scenario remains an increase in volatility in the weeks around the first unlocking.

Vesting and Key Figures (with Methodological Clarifications)

• Team unlock start date: November 29, 2025 (one year from the project’s “genesis,” according to Cointelegraph).
• Initial allocation for core contributors: approximately 23.8% of the supply reserved for the team.
• Total team vesting: ~11.9 billion HYPE distributed over 24 months.
• Estimated monthly unlock: ~$500M in current value (as the price of HYPE varies) at recent market prices.
• Estimated buyback: ~17% of the monthly issuance, with a residual potential (“overhang”) of approximately $410M, as highlighted in data from Cointelegraph and research by Maelstrom.

The estimates in dollars are sensitive to the price of HYPE: they reflect valuations at recent prices and may be updated in case of significant market changes or developments in the buyback policy.

Key stats HYPE (quick overview)

| Current Price | ~$49.34 (intraday) | CoinMarketCap |
| Recent ATH | $59.29 (current week) | Cointelegraph |
| Market cap | n.a. | — |
| Circulating/Total supply | n.a. / ~11.9B (team vesting) | Project Documentation |
| 24h Volume | n.a. | — |
| Initial Team Unlock | ~23.8% of the team share | Maelstrom Analysis |
| Key Dates | Nov 29, 2025; then monthly | Vesting Calendar |

Rumors and Analysis: Why the Overhang is Concerning

The research by Maelstrom (the family office of Arthur Hayes) defines the unlock period as a “Sword of Damocles” for the price resilience. Researcher Lukas Ruppert highlights the risk that the monthly supply surplus may not be fully absorbed, thereby increasing selling pressure.

However, Nicolai Sondergaard from Nansen points out that not all beneficiaries opt for immediate selling: the behavior of the team and holders could help mitigate the pressure, sending a signal of confidence to the market.

Capital Rotations: between HYPE and Emerging Tokens

The context remains dynamic. Arthur Hayes reportedly liquidated part of his HYPE holdings, using some of the funds for the deposit on a new Ferrari.

This episode fuels the narrative of profit-taking near unlock events, capturing media attention.

Meanwhile, address 0x220 reportedly moved to Aster, making purchases of $10.5M across two wallets, with an unrealized profit exceeding $6M.

During the same period, the Aster token recorded a weekly increase of over 1,700%, reaching an estimated market cap of about $2.5 billion (fourth among DEX tokens), while HYPE marked a decline of 7.9%, settling around $49.34.

Historical Context and Scenarios: What Could Happen

Looking at previous unlocks of Layer 1 and DEX projects, such as Aptos, dYdX, and Sui, the market has often experienced phases of high volatility both before and after the key date.

The outcome will depend on net flows, liquidity, and the prevailing narrative during that period. For HYPE, with an estimate of approximately $500M/month in unlocked value, three scenarios emerge:

• Conservative scenario (0% sales): limited effect on the price and the possibility of a confidence rally.
• Intermediate scenario (50% sales): potentially ~$250M in monthly sales; the impact will depend on the 24h volume and any buyback or staking initiatives.
• Stress scenario (100% sales): monthly selling pressure of approximately $500M, which would require high absorption or a market pricing already discounted.

The trajectory of the coming weeks will be influenced by the behavior of the whale, the team’s policy, and the liquidity available on the exchanges.

How to Read Vesting (Practical Checklist)

• Cliff and schedule: check the first unlock date and subsequent intervals.
• Quote and recipients: distinguish between team, investors, and other subjects of the ecosystem.
• Absorption: ensure the existence of buyback mechanisms, voluntary lock-up, or incentivized staking programs.
• Liquidity: compare the amount of unlocked tokens with the 24h volume and the depth of the exchange order book.
• On-chain signals: monitor significant wallets and movements towards trading platforms.

Essential Glossary

• Vesting: gradual release of tokens to reduce supply shock in the market.
• Overhang: future potential supply not yet absorbed by the market.
• Buyback: repurchase of tokens by the team or the treasury to mitigate selling pressure.

In summary: the combination of active whales, imminent unlocking, and a narrative focused on profit-taking will keep HYPE’s volatility high until the key date of November 29, 2025. Monitoring on-chain metrics, 24h volume, and official project communications will be crucial to assess the real impact on asset prices.