New Bill Could Spark the Next Crypto Market Rally?

The U.S. is facing another pivotal policy debate. Rep. Haley Stevens has introduced the “No Tariffs on Groceries Act,” designed to prevent presidents from imposing grocery tariffs without congressional approval. At a glance, this looks like a food policy issue. But when we dig deeper, the ripple effects extend to broader markets—including the crypto market.

 

Grocery tariffs have become a direct driver of inflation, and inflation in turn shapes Federal Reserve policy, consumer spending, and investor risk appetite. With crypto markets showing signs of consolidation after a strong recovery, this bill could act as a subtle but important catalyst for the next leg of market direction.

Crypto Market News: Inflation, Consumer Pressure, and the Fed Connection

Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average: Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics

Tariffs raise costs, plain and simple. The Yale Budget Lab estimates that current tariffs could push food prices up 3.4% in the short run, with produce up 4.1%. For households already stretched thin, grocery bills are one of the most sensitive inflation pain points.

If tariffs are curbed, grocery inflation may ease. That directly influences the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Lower CPI readings reduce pressure on the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. And here’s the chain reaction: when interest rate pressures ease, risk assets like crypto often rally as capital looks for higher returns.

Supreme Court Wild Card

The Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs is another factor. If the court invalidates large portions of tariffs, inflationary pressures could fall faster than expected. That would align with the congressional push from the new bill and reinforce the disinflation trend. Markets—crypto included—would likely price in a friendlier liquidity environment.

Chart Analysis: Crypto Total Market Cap

Crypto Market Cap: TradingView

Looking at the TradingView chart of the total crypto market cap:

• Current market cap sits at $3.98 trillion, just under the psychological $4 trillion mark.
• The Bollinger Bands show price hugging the upper band through mid-September but recently pulling back, suggesting short-term consolidation.
• Resistance is visible near $4.1 trillion, with Fibonacci projections pointing higher toward $4.4 trillion and $4.8 trillion.
• On the downside, the 3.8 trillion zone (middle Bollinger band) serves as immediate support, with stronger support near 3.6 trillion.

The market is consolidating after a strong summer rally, waiting for macro clarity. A softer inflation outlook due to reduced tariff risk could be the trigger that breaks crypto past $4.1 trillion resistance.

Crypto Market News: Predictive Outlook

• Short-term (next 2–4 weeks)
  Expect sideways movement between $3.8–4.1 trillion as traders weigh macro news. If the bill gains momentum in Congress, sentiment could shift risk-on, pushing crypto toward $4.4 trillion.
• Medium-term (3–6 months)
  If tariffs are curbed either legislatively or through the Supreme Court, inflation may cool further. This would strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts or at least a pause, which historically has ignited crypto bull cycles. The $4.8 trillion target comes into play here.
• Bearish risk scenario
  If tariffs remain in place, grocery inflation climbs, and the Fed stays hawkish, crypto could retest $3.6 trillion or lower. However, given current global liquidity conditions, deep corrections may be short-lived.

Conclusion

The No Tariffs on Groceries Act might seem like consumer protection legislation, but its real market significance lies in its potential to ease inflationary pressure. Lower inflation could translate into a friendlier monetary policy environment, directly boosting risk assets like crypto.

The chart shows the crypto market is at a critical pivot around $4 trillion. If the bill progresses and inflation expectations soften, the market may have the fuel it needs to push toward new highs.