Since July 2024, BTC has not seen signs of capitulation, replacing panic with resilience

BTC traded with no indications of capitulation since July 2024, extending one of its longest periods of low volatility and limited drawdowns. More strategic trading and long-term confidence meant the capitulation indicators never reached critical levels. 

BTC traded with no signs of capitulation since July 2024. Even during the short-term market panic, capitulation was limited. Since then, BTC entered another phase of expansion, where even short-term wallets were willing to hold, and panic-selling rarely happened. 

Based on Alphractal data, BTC had similar periods during the 2021 bull market and between 2015 and 2018. The capitulation index is a complex metric taking into account mining rate drop, price drawdowns of 50% or more, as well as suddenly active supply moving into exchanges. 

High levels of the index are also used as a signal for market bottoms. Without spikes in the index, BTC allows for more strategic moves, with fewer signs of panic. 

For some holders, capitulation was limited to selected holders. At the same time, shark wallets continue to buy BTC at the lowest possible price, expanding their reserves. During this cycle, resilience has replaced panic. Since the middle of August, BTC realized market cap was also above the market price, showing long-term conviction and even smoothing out smaller capitulation events.

Based on the robust performance of BTC, predictions were made for 2026. The past year validated the S2F indicator, suggesting BTC may go above $250K in the coming year, if the economic conditions and conviction show similar strength.

BTC market showed confidence with repeating rallies

While the crypto market faced headwinds and strategic selling, the period was also marked by multiple all-time highs and unprecedented accumulation in treasuries. Retail had also mostly sold during the summer of 2024, when BTC spent a few months around $60,000, while whales silently accumulated. 

During the 2025 bull cycle, the market consolidates without necessarily going through a capitulation event before that. As retail holds a smaller share of coins, panic-selling is also a rarer event.

The BTC fear and greed index was fluctuating in 2025, but the sentiment did not translate into panic-selling. As of September 19, the index is neutral at 53 points. 

BTC moved through a period of low volatility and limited drawdowns

During that period, the BTC volatility index was also on a downward trend, as BTC moved to higher ranges and made smaller daily moves. 

BTC volatility continued its downward trend in the past year, reflecting the lack of capitulation events and drawdowns of more than 20%. | Source: Bitbo

Additionally, the period saw relatively smaller drawdowns, mostly reflecting strategic selling or derivative trading. Since the start of 2024, BTC capped its biggest drawdown to around 20%, changing the rules for a bull cycle. 

Miners faced unprecedented difficulty and periods of ‘hash ribbons’ when the market price meant some pools were producing new coins at a loss. However, mining companies continued to hold through the long term and did not capitulate during the hash ribbon event. 

With more dedicated infrastructure and larger mining farms, capitulation is more complex. Instead, miners only had predictable seasonal fluctuations tied to the availability of hydroelectric energy.

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