- GBP/USD eases after a daily high of 1.3580, as the US Dollar recovers despite softer US sentiment and sticky inflation.
- Fed is expected to cut 25 bps next week, with SEP clarifying forward guidance; Deutsche Bank sees three cuts in 2025.
- UK GDP stagnates in July, while the BoE is likely to hold rates at 4%, narrowing policy divergence with the Fed.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats during the North American session on Friday by a modest 0.10% as the US Dollar (USD) recovers some ground, after a week that witnessed US inflation remaining steady above the Fed’s 2% goal but controlled. GBP/USD trades at 1.3556 after hitting a daily high of 1.3580.
Sterling retreats after US inflation steadies and consumer sentiment weakens, with focus shifting to central banks
The latest consumer and producer price inflation in the US provided a green light to the Fed to resume its easing cycle, as prices, although they remain high, stay below the 3% threshold. Next week, the Federal Reserve is expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points, and the likelihood of providing forward guidance about policy will be clarified by the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
Banks like the Deutsche Bank expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps in all three meetings this year, meaning that the Fed funds rate will reach the 3.50%-3.75% range.
Data from the US showed that Consumer Sentiment fell in September to its lowest level since June, according to the University of Michigan. The Consumer Sentiment Index dipped from 58.2 to 55.4. Inflation expectations for one year were unchanged at 4.8% and for five years rose from 3.5% to 3.9%.
In the meantime, the UK economic docket announced that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the UK stagnated, remaining unchanged in July, after growing 0.4% MoM in June, revealed the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Next week, the Bank of England (BoE) will host its monetary policy meeting, and it is foreseen to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 4%. This would reduce the interest rate differential and boost the prospects of the British Pound.
(This story was corrected on September 12 at 16:25 to say that 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations remained unchanged at 4.8% and the 5-year rose from 3.5% to 3.9%.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.33% | -0.28% | 0.20% | -1.24% | -0.86% | -0.17% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | -0.30% | -0.16% | 0.23% | -1.18% | -0.77% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.33% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.54% | -0.89% | -0.47% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.28% | 0.16% | -0.06% | 0.40% | -0.98% | -0.74% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.20% | -0.23% | -0.54% | -0.40% | -1.34% | -1.00% | -0.37% | |
| AUD | 1.24% | 1.18% | 0.89% | 0.98% | 1.34% | 0.42% | 1.07% | |
| NZD | 0.86% | 0.77% | 0.47% | 0.74% | 1.00% | -0.42% | 0.65% | |
| CHF | 0.17% | 0.12% | -0.18% | -0.12% | 0.37% | -1.07% | -0.65% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-slips-as-dollar-steadies-ahead-of-fed-boe-meetings-202509121531
