My 24 Hours in Dubai

Author: brother bing

8:00 am: I woke up and my phone sent me a notification that the United States and Israel had jointly declared war on Iran.

Perhaps it's because I've been in Dubai for too long, but I've become somewhat indifferent to the fighting in this region. Although Dubai is located in a powder keg, the UAE has always been, in my mind, a neutral and safe "Switzerland of the Middle East."

After all, money from both the legitimate and criminal worlds flows here. I thought to myself, Iran wouldn't destroy its own secret stash of funds.

• 9:30 am: A colleague came to talk to me, so we went downstairs for coffee and brunch. He was flying back to the UK from Abu Dhabi today; the flight hadn't been canceled, and the ticket price hadn't changed. Everything seemed normal.

• 12:00 PM: I went home at noon to start working. Then I saw that Iran had decided to attack the surrounding Gulf countries, and I didn't even think much of it. It wasn't until I saw photos of missiles posted by a friend in Abu Dhabi on Instagram that I realized things might be more serious than I thought.

• 1-3:00pm: In the afternoon, people living around me kept saying they heard the sound of a missile exploding. Since I didn't hear it myself, I naturally assumed these accounts were spreading fake news.

• 4:30 pm: As I was writing furiously at my computer, a loud explosion suddenly rang out above my head, and my half-open balcony door shook. When I went to the balcony, I could indeed smell gunpowder in the air.

Because I had a Pilates class scheduled for 5 pm, or maybe my mind hadn't quite registered it yet, I closed the balcony door and went downstairs to class. When I got to the street, everything was still peaceful and serene. People were walking their kids and dogs.

The cafe next to the yoga studio was packed with people. Influencers were still happily taking selfies.

• 6:00 pm: After returning home from exercising, the popping sounds became more frequent. I saw online that a hotel on Palm Island was affected, and smoke was also rising from City Walk.

The funny thing is, I was discussing company matters with my co-founder when I heard explosions outside. My immediate thought was: was it a missile or Ramadan fireworks? Several times I interrupted the call and went to the balcony to check if anything was falling from the sky.

• 7:30 pm: After finishing my work discussion, I went downstairs for a walk. The streetlights were on, the shops were open, and there was no obvious panic among the crowd. Except for the delivery times being a little longer.

I thought I could spend the night peacefully, and then wait for Khamenei to be arrested, and for the Iranian people to liberate everyone so we could go home.

Unexpected

• 12:30 AM: I was eating Japanese ramen takeout at home late at night when I received messages on all my phones and computers saying there was a missile attack. At that moment, I heard a series of loud explosions outside my window. I quickly grabbed my passport, cards, and phone, rushed out of the room, took the elevator down to the garage. There was a Ukrainian man in the elevator, along with an Indian couple holding a sleeping child.

• 1:30am: I'd been in the garage for over an hour when I saw on social media that Khamenei was dead, but then I saw that Dubai airport had been bombed beyond recognition. While I was agonizing over this, people from the building came over and told us to go upstairs and go home.

When I got home, I saw a text message from a friend saying that Iran was unlikely to bomb the UAE for the time being, and instead was going to bomb Israel.

• The next morning at 8:00 am: 24 hours have passed, and apart from the bombing of the Burj Al Arab last night, there haven't been many casualties. I can hear explosions every now and then in my area.

Iran says it will continue its attacks in the Gulf today, forcing the United States to halt its attacks on Iran.

Finally, let's talk about the impact of this attack on Dubai and the UAE.

Many people are comparing this event to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is utterly absurd and shows a lack of common sense. Air strikes are one thing, ground warfare is another. The likelihood of the UAE's mainland territory being occupied is extremely low. The country is unlikely to enter a prolonged state of war.

The real impact is that it has shattered the narrative of Dubai as a "gold rush dream" and a "successful case of reform and opening up in the Middle East." As a global hub for tourism and capital flows, Dubai will inevitably be impacted in the short term. The first to feel the pressure will be the tourism industry. The second will likely be the elderly speculators who engage in short-term property speculation.

The longer-term and more dangerous consequence is a significant decrease in immigration. An economy reliant on foreign population and capital inflows is extremely dependent on a sense of stability. Many Europeans come to Dubai seeking job opportunities or tax havens; after a few missile strikes, they may turn around and head to Singapore or other Asian countries.

Of course, the UAE is a highly efficient monarchy. Plus, it's not poor, so this black swan event came at a very opportune time, serving as a wake-up call. Next time you come, please have a bomb-raid shelter dug for my building.

That's all for now, I'm going downstairs to buy a coffee.