Is this the 2028 diamond bottom for BTC?

Author: Chain Research Society

Is this the 2028 diamond bottom for BTC?

2026 will undoubtedly be the worst start to a year for Bitcoin in nearly a decade.

Since its dismal start on January 1st, BTC has fallen from $109K to $65K, a 24% drop year-to-date. ETH fared even worse, down 34%. This is BTC's worst start to the year since 2016.

But this time is different; this collapse came without any reason.

1. The deepest fear is a drop without any reason.

The 73% drop in 2018 was due to the bursting of the ICO bubble, leaving countless worthless cryptocurrencies worthless. The 77% drop in 2022 was due to the collapse of Luna, the collapse of Three Arrows Capital, and the disappearance of FTX. Every time a market crashes, you know why.

Every time, you know where the enemy is and how long it will take to rebuild trust. So what about 2026?

• No exchange defaults

• Stablecoins without algorithms collapsed

• No hacking attacks

• No country bans BTC

It just fell. Fortune magazine said: the worst start to the year in history, but there is no clear catalyst for a crash.

A market crash with a valid reason will see a retaliatory rebound once the negative news has been fully priced in; however, a crash without a reason is like a slow, painful loss. When everyone is asking why the market is falling but can't get an answer, panic amplifies exponentially.

II. Have the bottom-fishing indicators reached their bottom?

Current market quantitative indicators suggest that the market has entered a vacuum zone of irrational selling.

According to the latest data on February 25th, our bottom-fishing model currently shows only 1/5 of the signals, indicating we are still far from the true bottom (data source: fuckbtc).

❌MVRV < 1.0

❌Price ≤ 200-week moving average

❌Price < P25

✅Fear and Greed ≤ 25 (Extreme Fear 11)

❌Price close to shutdown (nearly half of the machines are shutting down)

This level of extreme fear has only occurred historically during the late 2018 period when the price was around $3,000 and the FTX crisis when it was around $16,000. Although the price is still around $65,000, the market's psychological defenses have retreated to a doomsday mode.

III. Positive Signals Beneath the Surface: Who's Leaving the Game? Who's Trapped?

Despite the extreme cold, there are some positive signs:

1. USDT saw a net outflow of $3 billion over the past 60 days. The last contraction of similar scale was at the end of 2022 when FTX crashed and BTC was at $16,000. BTC is now at $64,000, four times higher than then.

The two methods have similar effects on capital withdrawal, indicating that leverage and floating shares in the market have been thoroughly cleared.

2. Short-term whales have not yet realized a loss of $26 billion. Most of these people established positions between $90,000 and $120,000 and are now down 40%. The selling pressure for further significant declines should not be as strong anymore.

Historically, when large funds are trapped at this depth, the selling pressure will actually dry up – because cutting losses has lost its logical significance.

➤ My opinion

I don't predict this is the bottom (it's highly unlikely).

But I know:

• Extreme fear (11) has emerged

Historically, sudden, unprovoked drops tend to be deeper, but also tend to rebound more sharply.

• At the $65K level, the margin of safety is already quite high.

Those who said $3,000 was the bottom in 2018 were right. Those who said $16,000 was the bottom in 2022 were right. Those who said $64,000 was the bottom in 2026—may be right, may be wrong.

I have no idea.

But what I do know is that the panic will eventually pass, and once trust is rebuilt, prices will return to normal.

If you are currently holding no positions, you have at least avoided the most severe pullback. Historically, market sentiment often bottoms out before prices.

History repeats itself: After the Mt. Gox hack in 2015, many believed trust could not be rebuilt; but looking back, every seemingly inexplicable darkest moment eventually became a diamond bottom leading to the next cycle. $64,000 in 2026 might be the number you most regret not adding to your position when you look back in 2028.