Oil drops amid Iran nuclear talks and US tariff uncertainty

• Trump says US global tariff will hit 15%
• Iran and US to meet on Thursday
• Tehran ready for concessions

Oil prices fell about 1 percent on Monday as the US and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, easing fears of an escalating conflict, while President Donald Trump‘s fresh tariff hikes created uncertainty for global growth and fuel demand.

Brent crude futures slid 76 cents, or 1.06 percent, to $71 a barrel by 03:54 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $65.75 a barrel, down 75 cents, or 1.10 percent.

Trump said on Saturday he would raise a temporary tariff from 10 percent to 15 percent on US imports from all countries, the maximum level allowed under the law, after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff programme.

“The tariff news over the weekend has resulted in some risk aversion flows this morning, which can be viewed in the price of gold and US equity futures and this is weighing on the crude oil price,” IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.

China said on Monday it is making a “full assessment” of the US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and called on Washington to remove “relevant unilateral tariff measures” imposed on its trading partners.

The tariff decision offset growing concerns of a military conflict between the US and Iran, which pushed Brent and WTI prices up more than 5 percent last week.

Iran and the US will hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said on Sunday.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, a senior Iranian official told Reuters.

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“Brent has at least $10 per barrel Iran risk premium but as long as the threat of US strikes hangs over diplomatic efforts, with a constant looming reminder from the naval armada amassed by Washington in the Middle East, it is hard to see crude sliding substantially,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Goldman Sachs said the global oil market is expected to remain in surplus in 2026, assuming no Iran-related disruption to supply, while raising its Brent and WTI forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 to $60 and $56 a barrel, respectively, citing lower OECD inventories.

However, potential sanctions relief for Iran and Russia could accelerate landed stock builds and unlock higher supply over the longer term, posing downside risks of $5 and $8 to 2026 fourth-quarter prices, Goldman Sachs analysts said.