S&P Global (SPGI) Stock Falls 7.7% After Missing Earnings Estimates

TLDR

• S&P Global (SPGI) stock fell 7.7% Tuesday after the company missed Q4 earnings expectations and issued weak 2026 guidance.
• Adjusted earnings came in at $4.30 per share versus the $4.33 consensus estimate.
• Q4 revenue increased 9% to $3.92 billion, matching analyst forecasts.
• The company projects 2026 adjusted EPS of $19.40-$19.65, missing Wall Street’s $19.96 target.
• Analysts highlighted concerns about the Ratings division’s 4-7% growth outlook and declining free cash flow.

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S&P Global stock suffered a sharp decline Tuesday as investors reacted poorly to mixed quarterly results and a disappointing outlook for 2026.

The financial information provider reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $4.30 per share. That narrowly missed Wall Street’s consensus of $4.33.

Revenue for the quarter climbed 9% to $3.92 billion. The number aligned perfectly with analyst expectations.

S&P Global Inc., SPGI

Full-year adjusted EPS reached $17.83, marking 14% growth from the previous year. However, the company’s forward projections raised serious questions about future performance.

Growth Slowdown Ahead

S&P Global expects 2026 revenue growth to slow to a range of 6.6% to 8.6%. That represents a notable deceleration from recent trends.

The company forecast adjusted earnings of $19.40 to $19.65 per share for 2026. That implies growth of approximately 9.5%, well below last year’s 14% rate.

The guidance fell short of the Street’s $19.96 consensus estimate by a considerable margin.

BMO Capital analyst Jeffrey Silber noted the company faced elevated expectations heading into the report. He expressed particular concern about the Ratings division.

The Ratings segment is expected to deliver just 4-7% organic constant currency growth. Many investors had anticipated stronger performance given expected issuance activity.

Stifel analyst Shlomo Rosenbaum characterized the results as “mixed” and predicted continued stock weakness. He cited lower-than-expected free cash flow as a key issue.

Rosenbaum observed that three of the four operating units projected revenue growth below previously established strategic targets. The guidance also came in beneath medium-term goals outlined at the company’s December investor event.

CEO Remains Optimistic Despite Market Reaction

Cheung touted the company’s AI integration as “a leap forward for our clients and the business.” She maintained confidence in S&P Global’s strategic direction and business model resilience.

The market response suggested investors remain skeptical.

Shares dropped 6.6% in midday trading to $415 each. Early trading saw declines approaching 18%.

The stock has now fallen into bear market territory, down more than 20% from recent highs. The information services sector has faced headwinds from AI-powered tools entering the financial data market.

Competitors also felt the pressure. MSCI shares fell 4.15% while other financial data companies traded lower.

The weak guidance compounds recent losses in information services stocks. AI chatbots tailored for legal and financial applications have raised questions about long-term competitive dynamics.

S&P Global’s 2026 forecast calls for revenue growth of 6.6% to 8.6% and adjusted EPS between $19.40 and $19.65 per share.

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