Next week's macro outlook: Powell will "fight" the market's expectations of rate cuts

PANews reported on August 16 that the U.S. economic data over the past week was mixed, causing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts to continue to fluctuate. Data released on Friday showed that consumer confidence unexpectedly declined for the first time since April, and inflation expectations rose. Due to continued speculation about the Fed restarting interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index closed lower for the second consecutive week, falling back below 98. U.S. Treasury yields generally rose amid inflation concerns, with long-end yields leading the gains, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hitting a two-week high. Next week, investors will turn their attention to the annual policy symposium held by Federal Reserve policymakers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, looking for clues about the path of interest rate cuts. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 23:00 on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller delivered a speech at the Wyoming Blockchain Seminar;

At 2:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting;

At 3:00 on Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, a 2027 FOMC voting member, will deliver a speech on the economic outlook;

At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 16;

At 22:00 on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

Next week's European and American PMI data will provide more clues about how Trump's tariffs are affecting the economy. HSBC analysts said in a note, "Now that reciprocal tariffs have taken effect, the input cost component of the PMI survey, particularly in the United States, should initially feel the impact of the tariff increases on prices."