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The crypto treasury boom is entering its first true stress test. After a year of runaway enthusiasm, the shares of several crypto treasury vehicles are now trading below the value of their own holdings.
Summary
- The buy-and-hold DAT model is breaking — falling mNAVs signal that markets no longer reward passive accumulation or hype-driven treasury strategies.
- Survival requires productive capital, not idle assets — successful crypto treasuries must stake, operate infrastructure, provide liquidity, and turn holdings into revenue-generating engines.
- The next winners will look like real businesses — firms that combine treasury leverage with operations, foundation alignment, and recurring revenue will outlast speculative treasury vehicles.
Warning signs of waning investor enthusiasm towards digital asset treasury companies, ot DATs, have been emerging since mid-October, when the market net asset value (mNAV) of roughly 15% of DATs fell below 1× (a signal that the market was valuing these companies at less than the combined value of their assets and liabilities). By early January, that figure had surged to nearly 40%, an alarming shift that suggests the economics underpinning the DAT boom are beginning to fracture.
Investors are sending a clear message: the traditional DAT playbook ( buying digital assets and waiting for them to appreciate) is no longer a convincing business strategy. To survive, DATs must evolve beyond accumulation. The next generation of successful crypto treasury companies will prove that crypto assets can power more efficient, resilient business models, not simply inflate balance sheets. Those who fail to adapt will be remembered as another speculative experiment that burned bright and faded fast.
Treasury fatigue sets in
The earliest treasury companies thrived on scarcity. There were only a handful of recognizable names in the market, and their novelty created powerful feedback loops. Liquidity was concentrated, investor attention was high, and media coverage amplified even modest performance gains. Metaplanet, an early high-profile DAT, skyrocketed to an mNAV of over 9x in February 2025, according to Q1 filings, bolstered by a 10:1 stock split and clever financial engineering.
Now that type of momentum seems like a distant illusion. The shares of several DATs, including Metaplanet, now underperform the value of the crypto they hold. The market’s fatigue is visible in shrinking premiums, flatter trading volumes, and a growing sense that these entities have little left to differentiate them.
Temporary rebounds are still possible. Strategy’s market-to-NAV ratio, for example, recovered from below one to nearly four during the 2024 upswing. But these are cyclical bounces, not structural recoveries. Without reinvention, treasury companies will keep oscillating with the broader crypto market rather than developing independent sources of value. The hype that once lifted all boats is gone. What remains is a test of who can build a business that endures beyond speculation.
Crypto is capital, and productive capital is king
Crypto assets are not inherently valuable; they become valuable when used productively. The next era of treasury companies will be defined by their ability to turn idle holdings into engines of growth. Bitcoin (BTC) treasuries face natural limits: Bitcoin’s programmability is restricted, and most opportunities revolve around balance-sheet engineering. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and other programmable networks, by contrast, offer the tools to deploy capital in more creative and productive ways.
At a baseline, treasury companies can stake, collateralize, and provide liquidity. These activities generate yield and strengthen the ecosystems they operate within. But the most ambitious players are going further, developing comprehensive operational ecosystems that use their capital as fuel for innovation.
One path is infrastructure operations. Running validators, RPC nodes, or data indexers converts treasury scale into a performance advantage. Capital depth allows for faster, more reliable infrastructure that, in turn, attracts more users and projects. Another is protocol participation, supplying liquidity, creating markets, and earning fees while supporting network throughput. These actions convert passive treasuries into active participants in the ecosystems that underpin their asset values.
In both models, productive capital becomes a competitive moat. It demonstrates that the company’s token holdings are not speculative chips but operational inputs. Over time, these dynamics will separate firms that use crypto as capital from those that merely hold it.
Crypto treasuries are businesses, and they must act like it
Staking rewards and passive yield can keep a treasury solvent, but they cannot sustain investor confidence. To attract durable capital, treasury companies must begin operating like real businesses. Berkshire Hathaway’s model offers a useful reference: an investment vehicle that also builds and acquires productive operations, compounding returns across cycles.
In crypto, sustainable models require similar operational layers. A treasury company can acquire infrastructure businesses that benefit from its native asset scale, such as validators or middleware providers. It can build proprietary tools and services that monetize its holdings, such as trading platforms or data analytics products. And it can develop recurring revenue streams that demonstrate consistent, productive use of its treasury.
Perhaps a more crypto-native approach can be leaning into the meme and hype-driven culture of crypto by adopting a business development strategy that fosters community engagement and spawns ‘viral’ moments.
These efforts transform a treasury company from a passive asset holder into an active enterprise. Investors reward this shift because it decouples value from token price alone. Firms that combine treasury leverage with operational execution will stand out as the market matures. The next cycle will favor builders over holders.
Foundations will catalyze growth
Blockchain foundations increasingly recognize that scaled treasury companies can accelerate ecosystem growth. They possess both capital and operational flexibility, making them natural partners for foundations seeking to strengthen liquidity and network activity.
Support mechanisms are already emerging. Some foundations sell assets at discounts to bolster initial market-to-NAV ratios, helping treasury vehicles attract investors early on. Others provide marketing support or community exposure to build recognition. The most forward-thinking foundations facilitate direct integrations, encouraging treasury companies to deploy capital into their networks’ liquidity pools or validator sets.
This relationship is mutually reinforcing. For non-profit foundations, decentralized autonomous treasuries act as a de facto for-profit execution arm. The foundation retains alignment through token holdings, while the treasury company gains the freedom to experiment and expand commercially. Together, they create a self-sustaining growth engine that can deploy capital flexibly while staying loyal to ecosystem objectives.
Such alignment gives foundation-backed treasury companies structural advantages. They become preferred liquidity providers, validators, and service operators within their respective ecosystems. This role positions them not as speculative vehicles but as long-term builders of sustained network liquidity and economic throughput.
The death of hype will determine the winners
The compression of market-to-NAV ratios marks the end of the easy-money phase for crypto treasury companies. Hype is no longer enough to maintain valuations. DATs will be forced to prove that crypto assets can underpin superior business models—models that generate recurring revenue, support ecosystem growth, and justify investor confidence even in flat markets.
The adjustment will be painful, but it is necessary. Markets are maturing, and investors now expect operational depth, governance transparency, and clear pathways to sustainable yield. The companies that deliver on these fronts will not just survive the current downturn; they will define the next phase of mainstream crypto adoption.
Source: https://crypto.news/what-crypto-treasuries-must-do-to-survive-as-hype-dies/
