USDC Use in Polymarket Drives Fresh Optimism for Circle Stock

Rising prediction market volumes are strengthening demand and improving revenue outlook for Circle’s stablecoin business.

Growing use of USDC on crypto prediction markets is improving sentiment around Circle Internet Group’s stock. Analyst commentary suggests rising activity on Polymarket could support stablecoin demand and future revenue. Investors reacted positively to signs of renewed momentum after earlier doubts around adoption. Market data now points to prediction markets as an emerging driver for Circle’s business.

Mizuho Sees Improved Outlook for Circle as Polymarket Volumes Surge

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) shares climbed about 3.4% on Wednesday following an upgrade from Mizuho Securities. Analysts shifted the stock rating to neutral, citing increased activity on Polymarket as a key growth factor for Circle’s USDC.

In addition, trading volumes on the prediction platform have expanded sharply. As such, attention to USDC’s role in event-based crypto markets has increased. Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said all wagers on Polymarket are settled in USDC, tying platform growth directly to stablecoin demand. 

Rising volumes on prediction points to a higher demand for USDC and stronger income prospects for Circle. Analysts expect interest in prediction markets to remain strong through 2026 and support continued expansion.

Circle controls the issuance of USDC, positioning it just behind the top dollar-backed stablecoin by market size. Last November, Mizuho revised its outlook on Circle, cutting its share target to $70 after raising doubts about near-term USDC growth.

USDC supply growth has been notable over the past two years. Market capitalization rose from about $30 billion in early 2024 to more than $60 billion by March 2025. Supply later rose to $75 billion toward the end of the year.

Prediction Market Boom Pushes USDC Supply Estimates Higher

Polymarket gained traction in early 2026, with trading volumes running at an annual pace close to $50 billion. Activity on the platform now exceeds last year’s levels by more than threefold, reinforcing its growing role in crypto markets.

According to Dolev, steady growth in user participation could translate into stronger demand for USDC. Mizuho estimates the current pace of trading may support an increase of roughly 25% in the stablecoin’s total supply.

Moreover, updated projections also reflect a more positive outlook for Circle’s core metrics. Average USDC circulation estimates were revised upward for the next two years. 

Expectations for 2026 rose by about 7%, while 2027 estimates increased by roughly 21%. 

Image Source: TradingView

At the time of writing, Circle stock is changing hands near $73, showing modest gains over short timeframes. The asset price remains far below the highs seen shortly after the company went public.

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