Bitcoin Faces Quantum Threat: Doomsday Clock Sets 2028 Deadline

TLDR

• The Quantum Doomsday Clock predicts that Bitcoin’s encryption could be broken by quantum computers by March 8, 2028.
• The clock models advancements in quantum hardware and cryptographic attack efficiency to estimate the timeline.
• Bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signatures, essential for securing wallets, may be compromised by quantum computing.
• The prediction aligns with warnings from quantum computing experts but remains disputed by some industry figures.
• Advances in quantum hardware, including work by Google, IBM, and other companies, are accelerating concerns about cryptographic vulnerabilities.

A new tool known as the Quantum Doomsday Clock has set a timeline for when quantum computing could potentially breach Bitcoin’s encryption. Developed by Colton Dillion and cryptographer Rick Carback, the tool provides an estimated date for when quantum computers might have the ability to break Bitcoin’s cryptography. The clock predicts that investors have until March 8, 2028, to secure their cryptocurrencies.

Timeline Set for Quantum Threat to Bitcoin

The Quantum Doomsday Clock models advancements in quantum hardware, error correction, and cryptographic attack efficiency. According to the tool, Bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signatures could be compromised by quantum systems by 2028. This would allow attackers to derive private keys from exposed public keys, making unauthorized spending from affected addresses possible.

Bitcoin uses elliptic curve cryptography to secure wallets and authorize transactions. If broken, this encryption would not disrupt the blockchain or network operations. However, it would enable attackers to target wallets that reuse addresses or have previously exposed public keys. The clock’s prediction is based on recent research indicating fewer logical qubits may be required to break the encryption than initially thought.

Quantum Computing and Bitcoin’s Vulnerabilities

The 2028 estimate for quantum computing breaking Bitcoin’s encryption aligns with warnings from experts in the quantum industry. IonQ CEO Niccolo De Masi has stated that cryptographically relevant quantum computers could appear by the decade’s end. Bitcoin security engineer Jameson Lopp has also emphasized the medium-term risk of quantum threats, stressing the need for early preparation.

Others remain more skeptical. Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, believes that quantum computers capable of attacking Bitcoin remain a distant possibility. He points to major engineering, coherence, and scaling challenges that still need to be overcome. While some institutions, like the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology, predict quantum threats to cryptography will emerge in the 2030s, the clock’s prediction suggests a closer timeline.

Rapid Advances in Quantum Hardware

The development of quantum hardware is progressing rapidly, further fueling concerns about its potential impact on Bitcoin. Companies like Google and IBM continue to make strides in superconducting qubits, with Google demonstrating more stable logical qubits. IBM has outlined plans for large-scale error-corrected systems that could have significant implications for cryptography.

Other companies are pursuing different approaches. Quantinuum and IonQ are focusing on trapped-ion quantum systems, which are known for their lower error rates. Meanwhile, China has reported progress across various quantum computing technologies, including superconducting, photonic, and neutral-atom systems.

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