Viva Energy (ASX:VEA) Stock; Slips as Investors Await Post-Holiday Trading Update

TLDRs;

• Viva Energy shares slipped 1.4% before the holiday as investors positioned cautiously ahead of key quarterly and annual updates.

• Refining margins and crude price swings remain the main near-term drivers for earnings and share price direction.

• Demand trends at fuel stations and convenience stores will be closely scrutinised for signs of resilient consumer spending.

• The January 29 trading update and February results are expected to set the tone for ASX:VEA in early 2026.

Viva Energy Group Ltd shares are back in focus as trading resumes on the Australian Securities Exchange following the Australia Day long weekend, with investors positioning ahead of the company’s upcoming fourth-quarter trading update. The stock last closed at A$2.08 on Friday, down 1.42%, underperforming slightly as the broader S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.13% higher.

The timing of the pullback is notable. With markets shut on Monday, liquidity paused just as oil prices firmed and global energy traders reassessed refining margins, supply disruptions, and consumer demand trends. When trading reopens, Viva’s share price is expected to reflect a combination of macro oil dynamics and company-specific expectations tied to refining performance and retail fuel volumes.

Refining margins in spotlight

At the heart of the near-term outlook is the refining margin, the spread between crude oil input costs and the prices fetched for refined products such as petrol and diesel. This margin is inherently volatile and can shift quickly due to movements in global crude benchmarks, regional supply constraints, and changes in demand.

Viva Energy Group Limited, VEA.AX

Brent crude was trading around $65.81 a barrel in early Asian hours, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $61.01, after both gained more than 2% in the previous session. Market analysts pointed to a mix of U.S. production disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty as short-term supports for prices.

For a company like Viva, higher crude prices can be a double-edged sword: they may lift the value of refined products, but only if pump prices and wholesale contracts adjust quickly enough to preserve margins.

Demand at pumps and stores

Beyond refining, Viva’s earnings are closely tied to volumes sold through its extensive network of service stations and convenience stores. Consumer fuel demand, traffic flows, and in-store spending all feed into revenue, particularly during peak travel periods and public holidays.

However, competitive pressures remain intense. Retail fuel pricing in Australia often lags movements in wholesale markets, and discounting cycles can compress margins even when demand is steady. Investors will therefore be watching for signals on whether higher operating costs, including energy and logistics, are being effectively passed through to end customers.

Geelong refinery key risks

Viva operates the Geelong refinery in Victoria, one of only two remaining refineries in Australia, with a capacity of up to 120,000 barrels per day. The facility gives the company a strategically important position in the domestic fuel supply chain, but it also concentrates operational risk.

Any unplanned outage, maintenance issue, or efficiency shortfall at Geelong could have an outsized impact on group earnings. Conversely, strong utilisation rates and stable operations could allow Viva to benefit more quickly from favourable margin conditions compared with peers that rely more heavily on imports.

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