Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price could still see a powerful bull run in 2026, according to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes.
- He pointed to a Bloomberg report showing the Japanese yen has climbed to its strongest level since August, calling it a sign that the tide may be turning beneath the surface.
- If the Fed is effectively leaning on the yen, its balance sheet should start to grow.
Arthur Hayes has sketched out a new reason to think Bitcoin price could still see a powerful bull run in 2026. It is a bold call, especially because the latest price action and market mood haven’t exactly pointed to a breakout.
Even so, Hayes says the real story sits above the charts. He believes macro forces are quietly turning in Bitcoin’s favor, and that shift could matter far more than the short-term noise.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Arthur Hayes Sees a Path to a BTC Bull Run in 2026
In a recent post on X, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes suggested Bitcoin could be lining up for a rally as the macro backdrop starts to improve. He pointed to a Bloomberg report showing the Japanese yen has climbed to its strongest level since August, calling it a sign that the tide may be turning beneath the surface.
Hayes said the setup would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin price if it plays out the way he expects. He argued that the key is the Fed adding fresh dollars to the system by expanding bank reserves. In his view, those dollars could then flow into yen buying. It would shift the currency market and ripple into risk assets.
Hayes added that if the Fed is effectively leaning on the yen, its balance sheet should start to grow. He said traders could track that through the Foreign currency-denominated assets line in the Fed’s weekly H.4.1 report.
He also pointed to reports suggesting that the New York Fed conducted dollar-to-yen checks intended to support Japan’s currency. At the same time, he noted that the U.S. Treasury has not yet stepped in with a formal intervention.
Even so, Hayes said a real Bitcoin bull run could follow if that policy move actually happens. In his view, it would not just lift BTC price. It would spill into the wider crypto market and pull prices up with it.
That take landed right after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged last Friday, despite earlier chatter about a possible hike. The rate hold took some pressure off the market. Investors had been expecting markets to drop further, so keeping rates unchanged eased some of the tension.
At the same time, Bloomberg said the yen rose about 1.75% to around 155.63 per dollar. It kept gaining during Asian trading and hit its strongest level since December.
At first, some traders read a stronger yen as bad news for Bitcoin and even floated a drop toward $70,000. Hayes disagreed. He said if the Fed steps in the way he expects, the same currency shift could end up doing the opposite and help set the stage for a new Bitcoin bull run.
What’s Next for Bitcoin Price? Traders Make Their Move
Hayes may be calling for a rally, but traders are not fully buying the story yet. Instead, many are already setting their sights on the next downside level. Polymarket data shows a bigger crowd expects Bitcoin to slide toward $80,000 before it finds enough strength to push higher.
Meanwhile, institutions have not provided much support. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $104 million yesterday alone. That also marked the fifth straight day of selling, and the past week has now seen more than $1.4 billion leave these funds.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2026/01/25/bitcoin-price-bull-run-is-inevitable-in-2026-arthur-hayes/
