Manila may lose aid as US pulls out of global treaties

By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter

THE Philippines may face risks to funding for disaster preparedness and climate resilience programs following the US withdrawal from several international treaties, analysts said, warning that reduced participation by Washington in multilateral frameworks could weaken development assistance flows.

Chester B. Cabalza, founding president of Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, said the US exit from international conventions could erode support for climate and humanitarian initiatives, areas where the Philippines has long relied on external assistance.

While Manila continues to benefit from strong defense ties with Washington, the US decision to step back from multilateral organizations “could reduce or remove international development aid, particularly for climate change and natural disaster response,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

US President Donald J. Trump this month issued a memo ordering the country’s withdrawal from dozens of international organizations and treaties, many of which focus on climate change and environmental cooperation.

Among them is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a key global treaty aimed at addressing global warming, along with about 30 other UN-linked bodies and 35 non-UN groups.

Mr. Trump, at the start of his second term, also cut funding for several UN programs, including those supporting climate adaptation and disaster preparedness, raising concerns among aid-dependent countries vulnerable to extreme weather events.

The US Embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a Viber message seeking comment.

Mr. Cabalza said Washington’s retreat from multilateral institutions could signal a broader weakening of international norms, potentially allowing major and middle powers to sidestep established rules.

“This creates challenges for countries like the Philippines, which seeks to uphold international law and a rules-based order, particularly as a middle power,” he said.

Manila has consistently stressed its commitment to international rules, especially in relation to its maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

Other analysts, however, said the immediate impact on the Philippines may be limited. Francis M. Esteban, associate dean at the Far Eastern University Institute of Arts and Sciences, said the country’s core relationship with the US remains anchored on longstanding defense arrangements.

“As far as the Philippines is concerned, our bilateral relations with the US center on the Mutual Defense Treaty, so this move may not directly affect us,” he said in a Facebook chat.

The 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty commits both sides to help each other in the event of an armed attack in the Pacific region.

Josue Raphael J. Cortez, a diplomacy lecturer at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde, said Manila should continue broadening its partnerships to reduce exposure to uncertainty arising from policy shifts by any single ally.

“This is important so the Philippines avoids overdependence, especially during a period marked by volatility and uncertainty,” he said in a Messenger chat.

The Philippines has stepped up efforts to forge economic and defense agreements with other countries in recent years, aiming to diversify trade links and strengthen its capacity amid tensions in the South China Sea.

“At the same time, we will continue close collaboration with the US, as shown by the roughly 500 joint military activities slated for 2026, while also maintaining other alliances,” he added.

Mr. Cortez also said Manila could use its bid for a nonpermanent seat on the United Nations Security Council to advocate continued support for climate and disaster-related agreements.

“It can use that platform to engage other nations, particularly in the Global South, to ensure these agreements continue to shape the international order,” he said.

Elections for five nonpermanent Security Council seats are expected by mid-2026, with successful candidates serving two-year terms.