Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom: When and How Low Will BTC Go?

The start of Q4 2025 was quite optimistic as the so-called ‘Uptober’ was destined to bring new gains and massive rallies. And, it did at least for the first week or so. Bitcoin skyrocketed to a new all-time high of over $126,000.

However, it all went horribly wrong in the following few days, especially after the October 10 crash, when over $19 billion worth of liquidations hit overleveraged traders. Nothing was really the same after that calamity, which is still being cited as the beginning of the end.

The cryptocurrency has plunged by over 30% since then and now struggles below $90,000, which has become an insurmountable resistance. Analysts are predominantly aligned in believing that the bear market has actually started, and the question now is when the BTC bottom will be.

364 Days From the Top?

Obviously, every analyst has a different theory on this, including Doctor Profit, who said that BTC will drop to somewhere around $40,000 by Q3 2026. In this article, though, we will focus on Ali Martinez’s opinion, which, to be fair, is not all that different.

He based his analysis on the cycle top and bottom theory. As previously reported, bitcoin has the tendency to reach a cycle top precisely 1,064 days after its previous bottom, which was the case between the January 2015 and December 2017 bull market, as well as between December 2018 and November 2021 rally. Interestingly, the early October 2025 ATH was also after 1,064 days.

Consequently, Martinez assumed that the bear market had started on that history-making date and had set up the stage for the subsequent long-term correction. He noted that these periods last 364 days (or almost an entire year) and the potential bottom should be around October 2026.

How Low Will BTC Go?

Continuing with the same history lesson, Martinez asserted that BTC had plunged by 84% during the 2017-2018 bear market and by 77% during the 2021-2022 one. If we average that number to around 80%, the next market bottom should see the cryptocurrency dropping to around $37,500.

While this sounds indeed scary at the moment, it’s worth noting that this projection is based on the popular 4-year cycle theory. However, many other analysts have claimed in the past several months that BTC has snapped out of it and it operates under different rules, given its institutional rise, ETF products, DATs, and government backing.

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