Strategy Stock Still a Buy at Cantor After Plunge Forces Major Price Target Cut

Markets

Share

Share this article

Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail

Strategy Stock Still a Buy at Cantor After Plunge Forces Major Price Target Cut

Lower adjusted net asset value multiple means Strategy can no longer issue equity at a premium, threatening its long-term plan to accumulate more bitcoin, analyst Brett Knoblauch wrote.

By Helene Braun, Will Canny, AI Boost|Edited by Stephen Alpher

Dec 5, 2025, 3:20 p.m.

Strategy does not plan to issue new convertible debt before 2028, Mizuho says. (CoinDesk)

What to know:

• Cantor Fitzgerald cut its 12-month price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $229, but retained its overweight rating on the stock.
• Mizuho highlighted Strategy’s strong cash reserves and shift to preferred equity as key moves to avoid selling bitcoin in a down market.

Catching up to the steep decline in the price of Strategy (MSTR), Cantor Fitzgerald's Brett Knoblauch cut his 12-month price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $229 from $560, citing a weaker environment for raising capital tied to bitcoin BTC$91,016.40.

The new target still suggests nearly 30% upside from the current price of $180, with Knoblauch maintaining his overweight rating.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters

Sign me up

By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy.

Strategy has built its business model around raising money via common stock, preferred stock and convertible debt offerings, and using the cash to buy more bitcoin. The flywheel worked wonderfully for years, propelling MSTR to eye-popping returns since its first bitcoin purchase in 2020. Over the past year, though, investors have been less willing to value Strategy at a high premium to its bitcoin stack. Combined with bitcoin's lame price performance, that's sent MSTR lower by about 70% from its peak in late 204.

Cantor now calculates Strategy’s fully adjusted market net asset value (mNAV) at just 1.18x — still a premium but down from the far higher levels of the past. This constrains Michael Saylor and team from raising money through what would now potentially be dilutive sales of common stock.

Knoblauch thus slashed his forecast for Strategy’s annual capital market proceeds to $7.8 billion from $22.5 billion. The value assigned to Strategy’s treasury operations — essentially, how much potential upside it can capture by raising capital and buying bitcoin — fell from $364 per share to just $74.

Still, Knoblauch hasn’t given up on the firm. “This is a function of both falling bitcoin prices and lower multiples,” he wrote in his Friday note. While he sees the current market as a headwind, his overweight rating signals confidence that the strategy could work again if bitcoin prices recover and investor appetite for leveraged exposure returns.

That view was echoed in a separate note from Mizuho, which took a more optimistic stance on Strategy’s short-term financial position. Following a $1.44 billion equity raise, the firm has built a cash reserve large enough to cover 21 months of preferred stock dividends. Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said this gives Strategy the flexibility to hold its position without needing to sell bitcoin.

At a recent event hosted by Mizuho, CFO Andrew Kang outlined a cautious approach to future fundraising. He said the firm has no plans to refinance its convertible debt before the first maturity in 2028. Instead, it will rely on preferred equity, which gives it access to capital while preserving its bitcoin holdings.

Kang also made clear that the firm will only return to issuing new equity when its mNAV climbs above 1 — a signal that the market once again values its bitcoin exposure at a premium. If that doesn’t happen, and capital becomes harder to raise, bitcoin sales could be considered, though only as a last resort.

The company appears to be taking a page from its 2022 playbook, when it paused bitcoin purchases during a market downturn and resumed buying once conditions improved. Analysts say this strategy — staying patient and liquid — could help Strategy navigate the current slump.

Read more: Strategy Still the Premier Bitcoin Proxy, Benchmark Says, Rejecting ‘Doom’ Narrative

StrategyMizuho BankAnalystsCantor fitzgerald

AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.

More For You

Protocol Research: GoPlus Security

By CoinDesk Research

Nov 14, 2025

Commissioned byGoPlus

What to know:

• As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
• GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
• Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.

View Full Report

More For You

MARA Trades at a Premium Factoring in Its Debt, Not a Discount: VanEck’s Sigel

By James Van Straten|Edited by Oliver Knight

7 minutes ago

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel argues MARA’s valuation looks expensive when adjusted for its leverage and capital structure.

What to know:

• VanEck’s Matthew Sigel argues once you account for MARA's $3.3 billion in convertible debt, it's net bitcoin value sits near $1.6 billion, which means the stock trades at a premium rather the perceived discount to its bitcoin holdings, with a $4.7 billion market cap.
• Sigel says much of MARA’s short interest and volatility stems from its capital structure, making it a far less direct bitcoin proxy compared to Strategy (MSTR).

Read full story

Latest Crypto News

MARA Trades at a Premium Factoring in Its Debt, Not a Discount: VanEck’s Sigel

7 minutes ago

Has the DAT Bubble Already Burst? CoinShares Says In Many Ways, Yes.

16 minutes ago

The Dollar Is Crumbling. Fiat-Backed Stablecoins Are Next

23 minutes ago

European Crypto Scam Network Dismantled After Laundering $815M

23 minutes ago

Crypto Sector Lit Up Bright Red as Bitcoin Slips Back to $90K

35 minutes ago

CoinDesk 20 Performance Update: Index Falls 1.5% as Nearly All Constituents Decline

38 minutes ago

Top Stories

Crypto Sector Lit Up Bright Red as Bitcoin Slips Back to $90K

35 minutes ago

Here's How Much Bitcoin, XRP, Ether, Solana May Move on Friday's Inflation Report

11 hours ago

Switch to Long-Term Thinking: Crypto Daybook Americas

3 hours ago

BlackRock’s IBIT Faces Record Outflow Run as Bitcoin Struggles to Reclaim Bull Trend

4 hours ago

Polymarket Hiring In-House Team to Trade Against Customers — Here's Why It's a Risk

5 hours ago

Kraken Launches High-Touch VIP Program for Ultra High Net Worth Clients

8 hours ago