- Finally over?
- Sellers are exhausted
The most recent read from @Swissblock’s risk-off signal provides the first concrete proof that capitulation has reached its limit, suggesting that Bitcoin may finally be establishing a bottom. The risk-off index has collapsed from extreme highs and is currently plunging sharply following weeks of unrelenting selling that propelled Bitcoin straight through its major moving averages and into the mid-$80,000 region. In the past, this type of rollover has only occurred when forced selling runs out.
Finally over?
The crucial point is that the market is no longer in the panic liquidation phase that propelled the first leg of the crash, and selling pressure has obviously decreased. This is supported by price action; RSI reached levels typical of local bottoms, and BTC recently printed its first significant rebound candle following a vertical decline.
BTC/USDT Chart by TradingViewWhile none of this ensures a reversal, it does signal a shift from blind surrender to stabilization. Swissblock’s framework is important in this case because it has surprisingly accurately mapped earlier bottom structures. Examine the chart for March and April. A second weaker selling wave emerges after the first selling spike depletes liquidity and the signal collapses.
Sellers are exhausted
When sellers are unable to break the market once more, the price maintains its previous lows, which serves as fuel for a trend reversal. True seller exhaustion occurs during the second wave. The same setup is now being approached. Although we have not yet seen the second wave, risk-off is rapidly declining.
This makes the upcoming week crucial. The pattern would nearly perfectly match previous bottom formations if BTC retests the lows with noticeably weaker momentum, such as lower volume, softer risk-off readings and no break below the $83,000-$85,000 range.
In that case, a recovery toward the 20-day and 50-day moving averages becomes the first target as the market begins to shift control back toward buyers. The bottom is not done, though, and BTC may return to the $78,000-$80,000 liquidity pocket if selling pressure increases and risk-off spikes once more.
Source: https://u.today/capitulation-is-behind-us-bitcoin-btc-catastrophe-finally-ending-analysts-show
