Key Insights
- The crypto bull market may return sooner because unemployment is rising and hiring is slowing.
- The U.S. jobs report points to higher chances of rate cuts as the economy cools.
- Cheaper money has helped past crypto recoveries, and the same setup may form again.
The new US jobs report shows clear weakness. The unemployment rate moved up to 4.4%. This is the highest level since late 2021.
Older job numbers were also changed to negative. Wages rose slower than prices.
When a job report looks weak like this, the US central bank often cuts interest rates. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper.
Cheaper money usually helps the crypto market. Many Bitcoin signals now match what we see near major market bottoms. But that doesn’t mean an immediate crypto bull market.
Let us understand why!
Job Report Shows Stress: Crypto Bull Market Ahead?
The new report shows the US job market is not as strong. Unemployment has climbed to 4.4%, the highest since 2021.
The country added 119,000 jobs in September, but the earlier month was changed to –4,000 jobs, which means the US actually lost jobs in the months leading up to this.
The US also lost jobs in June, so this is not a one-time problem. The trend, or rather the pattern, is clear.
Wages went up 3.8%, while prices went up 3%. Many workers are still not feeling safe. Together, these numbers show clear stress in the job market.
A weak job market often pushes the Fed toward rate cuts, which usually helps crypto. However, the supposed rate cut injection might not be enough to trigger an immediate bull market. For that, BTC needs to bottom out.
Bitcoin Movement Looks Similar to Older Bottom Zones
Bitcoin is stuck in deep fear. The Fear and Greed Index stayed at “Extreme Fear” for more than five days. This has not happened before.
Long fear periods often appear before a recovery. Short-term traders are also selling their coins at a loss.
More than 60,000 BTC went into exchanges in one day at a lower price than they bought. This type of loss-selling normally happens close to the last stage of a drop.
Stablecoins also show strength. The stablecoin supply ratio RSI is at 26. This number compares stablecoin buying power to Bitcoin’s size.
A lower reading means there is a lot of stablecoin money waiting on the side to buy Bitcoin.
This number often appears near Bitcoin bottoms because it shows fresh money is ready to enter.
Most recent buyers are losing money, too.
About 95% of people who bought Bitcoin in the past few months now hold coins that are worth less than what they paid. This number is higher than during COVID-19 and the FTX crash.
When so many holders sit in losses, the market usually clears out weak sellers before a new rise begins.
Why These Signs Point Toward a 2026 Bull Market
When fear stays high, loss-selling grows, stablecoin buying power rises, and job data weakens at the same time, we often stand near the end of a drop, not the start of a new one.
All of these signals match what we saw near older Bitcoin bottoms.
If Bitcoin forms its bottom in late 2025, the next strong rise normally begins three to six months later. This points to Q1 2026 as a likely window for the next big crypto rally.
The weak job report may be the first sign that the central bank will need to lower rates. Crypto often reacts to these changes slowly, but the signs are there.
If unemployment keeps rising, the central bank may have no choice but to lower rates, something that has always helped Bitcoin in past years. And that could be the first trigger for the crypto bull market.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/11/21/us-jobs-report-reveals-4-4-unemployment-a-crypto-bull-market-signal/
