Cryptocurrency analyst Timothy Peterson, in his statement on his social media account, warned investors about the risk of a possible decline by drawing attention to November for Bitcoin.
Peterson noted that Bitcoin’s price action over the past four months has been highly similar to that of 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2022. The analyst said the sharp declines experienced in November during these years indicate a historically recurring “seasonal risk.” “The price action is 91%, 90%, 92%, and 82% correlated with previous years,” Peterson said. “In most of these periods, Bitcoin experienced heavy losses in November.”
The analyst specifically highlighted the period around November 8th, stating that Bitcoin has historically experienced declines around this date, coinciding with the “30th percentile price path.” He also argued that the second and third weeks of November have been challenging for Bitcoin over the past four years, and that this is no coincidence.
Peterson said that downside risk is not only associated with technical but also macroeconomic factors: “Mid-November is the period when companies announce their third-quarter earnings and revised earnings expectations for next year. Lowering expectations usually leads to a flight from risky assets, and this is reflected in Bitcoin.”
The analyst also highlighted significant past events. The 2018 crypto winter began in November, and the FTX crash occurred on November 8, 2022. The first signs of the Mt. Gox scandal also emerged in November 2013.
“Markets have been jittery in recent weeks, with the VIX rising and stocks selling off sharply in the face of weak earnings. It appears the market is looking for a sell signal,” Peterson concluded.
*This is not investment advice.
Source: https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/experienced-analyst-issues-warning-for-bitcoin-in-november-also-provides-a-date-to-pay-particular-attention-to/
