Analysts See 70% Chance Strategy Joins S&P 500 as Bitcoin Cycle Resets

According to new projections from 10x Research, Strategy’s upcoming earnings could become the trigger that places the Bitcoin-focused firm inside the S&P 500 index before year-end. The odds, they estimate, hover around 70%.

A Quarter That Could Change Everything

On October 30, the company will release results for the third quarter of 2025. Expectations are unusually high: analysts anticipate roughly $3.8 billion in unrealized gains from Bitcoin’s fair-value accounting. If that profit holds, the report could reshape market perception just in time for the S&P’s December rebalancing.

10x Research hinted that investor exhaustion often precedes recovery. “Capitulation tends to mark the start of something new,” their note said, suggesting that Strategy’s earnings may reignite interest in Bitcoin treasuries right when sentiment looks most fragile.

From Expansion to Pause

For much of 2024 and early 2025, Strategy led a new corporate movement—companies treating Bitcoin not as a hedge but as a balance-sheet engine. Yet that model is being tested. Several digital-asset treasuries (DATs) have watched their market-to-NAV ratios slip below parity this year, undermining their ability to issue new shares to fund additional crypto buys.

That decline hasn’t spared Strategy. Its own mNAV recently dropped under one, aligning it with peers such as Metaplanet, Bitmine, Sharplink, Upexi, and DeFi Development Corp—all of which have struggled to maintain fundraising momentum.

This stress translated into slower Bitcoin accumulation: Strategy added only 778 BTC in October, compared with more than 3,500 BTC the month before. For a company that once treated every dip as an entry point, the cooldown is striking.

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The Cycle Theory Returns

Still, 10x Research believes the retrenchment may be setting the stage for the next phase of the crypto cycle. With NAV premiums erased and nearly $18 billion in market losses already absorbed, the firm argues that risk is resetting while volatility quietly builds. “This is typically when liquidity starts to return,” the report said—a moment when dormant capital begins seeking asymmetric upside again.

In that light, Strategy’s quieter accumulation looks less like retreat and more like positioning ahead of a liquidity rebound.

Wall Street Starts Paying Attention

Adding to the intrigue, S&P Global Ratings recently issued a B- credit score for Strategy—its first ever for a Bitcoin-treasury company. Though still classed as speculative, the rating establishes a baseline for how traditional finance can evaluate digital-asset balance sheets. For the broader market, it’s a symbolic crossing of wires between two once-separate worlds: Bitcoin and blue-chip finance.

If Strategy does make it into the S&P 500 in December, it would be a watershed. No company so tied to a digital asset has ever entered a major U.S. equity index. Inclusion would likely draw billions in passive inflows from index funds and ETFs, effectively making Bitcoin exposure part of mainstream portfolio construction for the first time.

Yet the path remains narrow. A volatile Bitcoin market, investor skepticism, and valuation fatigue could all challenge the narrative before the committee’s decision. But should the earnings impress and sentiment shift, Strategy could end 2025 not just as the largest Bitcoin treasury—but as the first bridge between corporate America and the crypto economy’s core.

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