Will Strategy Break Into the S&P 500 After $3.8B Bitcoin Boost?

TLDR

• Strategy is expected to report a $3.8 billion gain from Bitcoin in its third-quarter earnings.
• 10X Research estimates there is a 70 percent chance Strategy will be added to the S&P 500 index.
• Strategy slowed its Bitcoin purchases in October with only 778 BTC acquired compared to 3,526 BTC in September.
• The company received a B-minus credit rating from S&P Global Ratings which is still classified as speculative grade.
• The final S&P 500 inclusion decision is expected on December 5 and could take effect on December 19.

Strategy may enter the S&P 500 before year-end, according to a report by crypto intelligence firm 10X Research. The prediction follows estimates of a $3.8 billion Bitcoin accounting gain in Strategy’s Q3 earnings.

Q3 Earnings Set to Drive S&P 500 Inclusion

Strategy is scheduled to report its Q3 2025 earnings this Thursday. Analysts expect a profit driven by fair-value Bitcoin accounting gains. 10X Research estimates the Bitcoin gains could total $3.8 billion for the quarter. That figure could meet S&P eligibility criteria. A profitable quarter may give Strategy a 60%–70% chance of joining the index by December 19, said the report.

Strategy acquired only 778 Bitcoin in October, down 78% from September’s 3,526 BTC purchase. This marks one of its slowest acquisition months. The drop occurs as the market corrects and the Strategy’s NAV premium declines. It previously allowed easier capital raises.

The mNAV, which compares enterprise value to crypto assets, fell below 1 for Strategy and other digital asset treasury (DAT) firms. S&P Global Ratings assigned Strategy a “B-” credit rating this month. The rating places the company in speculative territory. Despite the rating, S&P maintains a positive outlook on Strategy’s equity. It marks the first such rating for a Bitcoin-focused firm. 10X Research sees this as a potential benchmark for others. However, credit risks remain as mNAV drops continue.

10X Research Sees Inclusion as Near-Term Catalyst

10X said the October 30 earnings call could reignite speculation over S&P inclusion. They place a 70% probability on the scenario. The December 5 S&P decision date is seen as the next milestone. Strategy’s Q3 performance may act as a catalyst.

“Capitulation always feels like the end until it quietly marks the beginning,” 10X said in its report. Volatility has returned to crypto markets recently. 10X notes the NAV premium’s drop caused $18 billion in investor losses.

Still, they argue the market may be shifting. Liquidity may return, creating conditions for larger moves in Strategy’s stock. Investor sentiment remains weak. Yet 10X calls the Q3 earnings report an “obvious catalyst” for renewed attention.

Digital Asset Treasury Firms Face Fundraising Challenges

Other DAT firms also saw their mNAV fall below 1 this year. These include Bitmine, Metaplanet, Sharplink, Upexi, and DeFi Development Corp. When mNAV stays below 1, raising funds by issuing equity becomes difficult. This limits new Bitcoin purchases for Strategy and peers.

Strategy’s ability to grow its Bitcoin treasury may now be constrained. The firm remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally. The S&P 500 inclusion decision will follow the October 30 earnings report. The effective date would be December 19 if approved.

Strategy’s current financials appear to meet profitability and liquidity requirements for inclusion. Market capitalization also aligns with the thresholds of various indexes. 10X Research considers Strategy’s inclusion as highly probable. The firm maintains a confident stance despite recent downturns.

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