Norwegian Officials Investigate Betting Surge on Polymarket Before Nobel Prize

TLDR

• Three Polymarket accounts profited $90,000 from last-minute Nobel Peace Prize bets.
• Maria Corina Machado’s odds surged from 3.6% to 70% before the Nobel announcement.
• Polymarket faces scrutiny over possible insider trading tied to the Nobel Prize.
• Norwegian authorities investigate a potential leak of Nobel Peace Prize information.

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Norwegian officials are investigating suspicious betting activity on Polymarket just before the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement. Several users placed large bets on the eventual winner, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, causing her odds to surge dramatically hours before the prize was revealed. Authorities are now looking into a potential leak of information, raising concerns about insider trading in prediction markets.

Betting Surge Raises Suspicion

Just before the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado’s odds on Polymarket saw an unexpected spike. Initially, her chances of winning the prize were estimated at around 3.6%. However, 10 hours before the official announcement, her odds surged to over 70%. This sharp increase was attributed to several large wagers placed by a few accounts.

These bets came under scrutiny when it was revealed that three Polymarket users earned around $90,000 in combined profits from their predictions. One of the traders, identified as “dirtycup,” had opened their account only days before the Nobel announcement and had placed a sizable wager on Machado. This raised concerns among Norwegian officials about the potential for insider information influencing the market.

Norwegian Authorities Investigate the Leak

In response to the unusual betting activity, Norwegian authorities have initiated an investigation into a possible information leak regarding the Nobel Peace Prize. Kristian Berg Harpviken, the Director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, commented on the situation, saying, “We take this very seriously.

It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.” Harpviken emphasized that maintaining secrecy is crucial for the integrity of the Nobel Prize process, and the institute is taking steps to understand how this leak may have occurred.

Officials are now looking closely at the betting patterns to determine whether any confidential details about Machado’s selection as the laureate were shared before the public announcement. While the investigation is ongoing, the case has drawn attention to the potential risks of prediction markets, where insider knowledge could significantly impact betting outcomes.

Polymarket’s Role and Regulatory Challenges

Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, has faced growing scrutiny in recent years. In 2022, it was forced to halt its operations in the U.S. due to regulatory concerns, but the platform has plans to relaunch under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Polymarket’s operations, which cover a wide range of events from political decisions to pop culture outcomes, have raised concerns among regulators about the potential for insider trading and market manipulation.

Amanda Fischer, a former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chief of staff, questioned whether the CFTC would have the capacity to properly regulate prediction markets. She pointed out that with hundreds of events available for betting, it would be challenging for regulators to monitor every market and prevent cases of abnormal profit-taking based on insider knowledge.

Potential Impact on U.S. Relaunch

The investigation into the Nobel Peace Prize betting surge may have wider implications for Polymarket’s planned reentry into the U.S. market. The platform had been expected to relaunch soon, following a significant investment from the Intercontinental Exchange. However, the ongoing probe into possible insider trading on the platform could delay or complicate its return to the U.S.

The U.S. government shutdown has already slowed the regulatory process, and the current investigation may further delay Polymarket’s plans. It remains to be seen how regulators will respond to the concerns raised by the Nobel betting incident and what actions, if any, they will take to prevent similar occurrences in the future.

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